Počet záznamů: 1
Climate change scenarios of heat waves in Central Europe and their uncertainties
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SYSNO ASEP 0468651 Druh ASEP J - Článek v odborném periodiku Zařazení RIV J - Článek v odborném periodiku Poddruh J Článek ve WOS Název Climate change scenarios of heat waves in Central Europe and their uncertainties Tvůrce(i) Lhotka, Ondřej (UEK-B) RID, ORCID, SAI
Kyselý, J. (CZ)
Farda, Aleš (UEK-B) RID, SAIZdroj.dok. Theoretical and Applied Climatology - ISSN 0177-798X
Roč. 131, 3-4 (2018), s. 1043-1054Poč.str. 12 s. Jazyk dok. eng - angličtina Země vyd. AT - Rakousko Klíč. slova temperature extremes ; model simulations ; change impacts ; precipitation ; projections ; summer ; variability Vědní obor RIV DG - Vědy o atmosféře, meteorologie Obor OECD Meteorology and atmospheric sciences CEP LO1415 GA MŠMT - Ministerstvo školství, mládeže a tělovýchovy Institucionální podpora UEK-B - RVO:86652079 UT WOS 000423574800013 EID SCOPUS 85008470415 DOI 10.1007/s00704-016-2031-3 Anotace The study examines climate change scenarios of Central European heat waves with a focus on related uncertainties in a large ensemble of regional climate model (RCM) simulations from the EURO-CORDEX and ENSEMBLES projects. Historical runs (1970-1999) driven by global climate models (GCMs) are evaluated against the E-OBS gridded data set in the first step. Although the RCMs are found to reproduce the frequency of heat waves quite well, those RCMs with the coarser grid (25 and 50 km) considerably overestimate the frequency of severe heat waves. This deficiency is improved in higher-resolution (12.5 km) EURO-CORDEX RCMs. In the near future (2020-2049), heat waves are projected to be nearly twice as frequent in comparison to the modelled historical period, and the increase is even larger for severe heat waves. Uncertainty originates mainly from the selection of RCMs and GCMs because the increase is similar for all concentration scenarios. For the late twenty-first century (2070-2099), a substantial increase in heat wave frequencies is projected, the magnitude of which depends mainly upon concentration scenario. Three to four heat waves per summer are projected in this period (compared to less than one in the recent climate), and severe heat waves are likely to become a regular phenomenon. This increment is primarily driven by a positive shift of temperature distribution, but changes in its scale and enhanced temporal autocorrelation of temperature also contribute to the projected increase in heat wave frequencies. Pracoviště Ústav výzkumu globální změny Kontakt Nikola Šviková, svikova.n@czechglobe.cz, Tel.: 511 192 268 Rok sběru 2019
Počet záznamů: 1