Mitigation efforts will not fully alleviate the increase in water scarcity occurrence probability in wheat-producing areas

Trnka, Miroslav; Feng, S.; Semenov, M. A.; Olesen, J. E.; Kersebaum, K. C.; Rötter, R. P.; Semerádová, Daniela; Klem, Karel; Huang, W.; Ruiz-Ramos, M.; Hlavinka, Petr; Meitner, Jan; Balek, Jan; Havlík, P.; Büntgen, Ulf

doi:https://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aau2406

Počet záznamů: 1

Mitigation efforts will not fully alleviate the increase in water scarcity occurrence probability in wheat-producing areas

1.

SYSNO ASEP	0509316
Druh ASEP	J - Článek v odborném periodiku
Zařazení RIV	J - Článek v odborném periodiku
Poddruh J	Článek ve WOS
Název	Mitigation efforts will not fully alleviate the increase in water scarcity occurrence probability in wheat-producing areas
Tvůrce(i)	Trnka, Miroslav (UEK-B)_{RID, ORCID, SAI} Feng, S. (DE) Semenov, M. A. (GB) Olesen, J. E. (DK) Kersebaum, K. C. (DE) Rötter, R. P. (FI) Semerádová, Daniela (UEK-B)_{RID, ORCID, SAI} Klem, Karel (UEK-B)_{RID, ORCID, SAI} Huang, W. (CN) Ruiz-Ramos, M. (ES) Hlavinka, Petr (UEK-B)_{RID, ORCID, SAI} Meitner, Jan (UEK-B)_{ORCID, SAI, RID} Balek, Jan (UEK-B)_{ORCID, SAI, RID} Havlík, P. (AT) Büntgen, Ulf (UEK-B)_{RID, ORCID, SAI}
Celkový počet autorů	15
Číslo článku	eaau2406
Zdroj.dok.	Science Advances. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science - ISSN 2375-2548 Roč. 5, č. 9 (2019)
Poč.str.	12 s.
Jazyk dok.	eng - angličtina
Země vyd.	US - Spojené státy americké
Klíč. slova	Food supply ; Climate change mitigation ; Food security ; Future assessment ; Future climate ; Occurrence probability ; Producing areas ; Water scarcity ; Global warming
Vědní obor RIV	GC - Pěstování rostlin, osevní postupy
Obor OECD	Agronomy, plant breeding and plant protection
CEP	EF16_019/0000797 GA MŠMT - Ministerstvo školství, mládeže a tělovýchovy
Výzkumná infrastruktura	CzeCOS II - 90061 - Ústav výzkumu globální změny AV ČR, v. v. i.
Způsob publikování	Open access
Institucionální podpora	UEK-B - RVO:86652079
UT WOS	000491128800080
EID SCOPUS	85072648095
DOI	10.1126/sciadv.aau2406
Anotace	Global warming is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of severe water scarcity (SWS) events, which negatively affect rain-fed crops such as wheat, a key source of calories and protein for humans. Here, we develop a method to simultaneously quantify SWS over the world’s entire wheat-growing area and calculate the probabilities of multiple/sequential SWS events for baseline and future climates. Our projections show that, without climate change mitigation (representative concentration pathway 8.5), up to 60% of the current wheat-growing area will face simultaneous SWS events by the end of this century, compared to 15% today. Climate change stabilization in line with the Paris Agreement would substantially reduce the negative effects, but they would still double between 2041 and 2070 compared to current conditions. Future assessments of production shocks in food security should explicitly include the risk of severe, prolonged, and near-simultaneous droughts across key world wheat-producing areas.
Pracoviště	Ústav výzkumu globální změny
Kontakt	Nikola Šviková, svikova.n@czechglobe.cz, Tel.: 511 192 268
Rok sběru	2020
Elektronická adresa	https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/advances/5/9/eaau2406.full.pdf

Počet záznamů: 1