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Tailored vs Black-Box Models for Forecasting Hourly Average Solar Irradiance
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SYSNO ASEP 0436527 Druh ASEP J - Článek v odborném periodiku Zařazení RIV J - Článek v odborném periodiku Poddruh J Článek ve WOS Název Tailored vs Black-Box Models for Forecasting Hourly Average Solar Irradiance Tvůrce(i) Brabec, Marek (UIVT-O) RID, SAI, ORCID
Paulescu, M. (RO)
Badescu, V. (RO)Zdroj.dok. Solar Energy. - : Elsevier - ISSN 0038-092X
Roč. 111, January (2015), s. 320-331Poč.str. 12 s. Jazyk dok. eng - angličtina Země vyd. US - Spojené státy americké Klíč. slova solar irradiance ; forecasting ; tilored statistical models Vědní obor RIV BB - Aplikovaná statistika, operační výzkum CEP LD12009 GA MŠMT - Ministerstvo školství, mládeže a tělovýchovy Institucionální podpora UIVT-O - RVO:67985807 UT WOS 000348259200028 EID SCOPUS 84911420678 DOI https://doi.org/10.1016/j.solener.2014.11.003 Anotace Accurate prediction of solar radiation is of high importance for proper operation of the electrical grid. Over short horizons, forecasting solar irradiance is often performed by extrapolation of field measurements. Four tailored statistical models for forecasting hourly average solar irradiance are proposed and assessed in this paper. These follow from the well-known regression and ARIMA class of models, but bring into the model formulation various physically motivated additional features. These capture the distribution of solar radiation more effectively. Their performance is compared with the performance of a standard model used in the strictly black-box style often encountered in practice. Overall results demonstrate that the proposed models are significantly more accurate than the standard model, under conditions of mostly cloudy skies. Pracoviště Ústav informatiky Kontakt Tereza Šírová, sirova@cs.cas.cz, Tel.: 266 053 800 Rok sběru 2015
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