Počet záznamů: 1
Changes in heat-attributable deaths in Prague, Czech Republic, over 1982–2019
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SYSNO ASEP 0545663 Document Type A - Abstract R&D Document Type The record was not marked in the RIV R&D Document Type Není vybrán druh dokumentu Title Changes in heat-attributable deaths in Prague, Czech Republic, over 1982–2019 Author(s) Urban, Aleš (UFA-U) RID, ORCID
Fonseca-Rodríguez, O. (CZ)
Di Napoli, C. (GB)
Plavcová, Eva (UFA-U) RID, ORCID
Kyselý, Jan (UFA-U) RID, ORCIDNumber of authors 5 Source Title EMS Annual Meeting Abstracts, Vol. 18. - Berlin : European Meteorological Society, 2020 Number of pages 1 s. Publication form Online - E Action EMS Annual Meeting 2021 Event date 06.09.2021 - 10.09.2021 VEvent location online Event type WRD Language eng - English Country DE - Germany Keywords low-frequency atmospheric circulation variability ; long-term trends ; seasonal trends ; weekly effects Subject RIV DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology OECD category Climatic research Institutional support UFA-U - RVO:68378289 Annotation Studies projecting the impacts of future climate change on temperature-mortality relationships suggest increasing heat-related mortality in most regions of the world. On the contrary, a reduced risk of heat-related mortality has been observed in many countries over the last decades, suggesting a positive effect of technological development and improved health care systems. However, most of the studies show that the decline in vulnerability of populations to heat has abated in the early 2000s and further decreasing trend is unlikely.
In this study, we analysed temperature-mortality relationships in Prague, Czech Republic during 1982–2019. The study was restricted to five warmest months (May–September). To investigate possible changes in the temperature–mortality relationship, the study period was divided in four decades (1980s to 2010s). Conditional Poisson Regression coupled with the Distributed Lag Non-Linear Model (DLNM) was run separately in each decade, to derive decade-specific temperature–mortality associations. A stratum indicator variable composed of year, month, and day of the week was used to control for long-term, seasonal trends and weekly effects. The DLNM approach was applied in order to analyse delayed effects of temperature on mortality. The attributable number of deaths (AD) and the attributable fraction (AF %) of total May–September deaths on hot days was calculated from the model’s outputs, separately for each decade. Hot days were defined as days with daily mean temperature larger than the 95th percentile of the decade-specific May–September distribution.
We observed a quadratic trend shape in the number of deaths attributable to heat; maximum in the 2010s and minimum in the 1990s. The total number of heat-attributable deaths increased from ≈500 to almost 900 per decade between the 1980s and the 2010s, which corresponds to the fraction of 0.90 and 1.75 %, respectively, of the total number of deaths in a warm season.Workplace Institute of Atmospheric Physics Contact Kateřina Adamovičová, adamovicova@ufa.cas.cz, Tel.: 272 016 012 ; Kateřina Potužníková, kaca@ufa.cas.cz, Tel.: 272 016 019 Year of Publishing 2022
Počet záznamů: 1