Počet záznamů: 1
Improving the lightning forecast with the WRF model and lightning data assimilation: Results of a two-seasons numerical experiment over Italy
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SYSNO ASEP 0585032 Druh ASEP J - Článek v odborném periodiku Zařazení RIV J - Článek v odborném periodiku Poddruh J Článek ve WOS Název Improving the lightning forecast with the WRF model and lightning data assimilation: Results of a two-seasons numerical experiment over Italy Tvůrce(i) Federico, S. (IT)
Torcasio, R.C. (IT)
Popová, Jana (UFA-U) RID, ORCID
Sokol, Zbyněk (UFA-U) RID, ORCID
Pop, Lukáš (UFA-U) RID, ORCID
Lagasio, M. (IT)
Lynn, B.H. (IL)
Puca, S. (IT)
Dietrich, S. (IT)Celkový počet autorů 9 Číslo článku 107382 Zdroj.dok. Atmospheric Research. - : Elsevier - ISSN 0169-8095
Roč. 304, July (2024)Poč.str. 20 s. Jazyk dok. eng - angličtina Země vyd. NL - Nizozemsko Klíč. slova Lightning forecast ; Lightning data assimilation ; WRF ; Convection ; Forecast performance Vědní obor RIV DG - Vědy o atmosféře, meteorologie Obor OECD Meteorology and atmospheric sciences Způsob publikování Open access Institucionální podpora UFA-U - RVO:68378289 UT WOS 001225855700001 EID SCOPUS 85189640964 DOI 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107382 Anotace We show, for the first time over Italy and over part of the central Mediterranean Basin, the impact of lightning data assimilation (LDA) on the strokes forecast for a long period. We use the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with the Dynamic Lightning Scheme (DLS) at convection allowing horizontal resolution (3 km). We carried out a two-seasons experiment (summer 2020 and fall 2021) providing the forecast of lightning and precipitation for the next 6 h (nowcasting), considering two sub-periods (0-3 h and 3-6 h) for verification. The LDA is done through a nudging scheme that increases the water vapor mass in the mixed-phase region based on observed flash density rates and simulated graupel mixing ratio. No changes are made to the model run if spurious convection is predicted or no flashes are observed. LDA can trigger convection missed by the control forecast, without LDA, and/or can redistribute the strokes predicted to be more consistent with observations. LDA has a positive impact on strokes forecast, improving correct forecasts and reducing false alarms. This improvement is however confined to the first three-hours of forecast with negligible to negative impact for longer time ranges, in line with other studies. The improvement pattern is different in summer and fall, depending on the convection development.
The analysis of the Fraction Skill Score shows the usefulness of the forecast for practical purposes, considering the current areas used by the Civil Protection Department to issue meteorological alerts for intense convective events over Italy. Finally, it is shown that the forecast at the short-range (0−3h) using LDA can improve the strokes forecast issued on the previous day, not using LDA, and the methodology of this paper can be applied to issue warnings and alerts as the storm is approaching.
A brief examination of rainfall forecast shows positive impact of LDA at the short-range (0-3 h), with neutral impact for longer time ranges. The different impact of LDA on the strokes and precipitation forecasts is also highlighted.Pracoviště Ústav fyziky atmosféry Kontakt Kateřina Adamovičová, adamovicova@ufa.cas.cz, Tel.: 272 016 012 ; Kateřina Potužníková, kaca@ufa.cas.cz, Tel.: 272 016 019 Rok sběru 2025 Elektronická adresa https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169809524001649?via%3Dihub
Počet záznamů: 1