Počet záznamů: 1
Constraining the Nineteenth-Century Temperature Baseline for Global Warming
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SYSNO ASEP 0575274 Druh ASEP J - Článek v odborném periodiku Zařazení RIV J - Článek v odborném periodiku Poddruh J Článek ve WOS Název Constraining the Nineteenth-Century Temperature Baseline for Global Warming Tvůrce(i) Schneider, L. (DE)
Konter, O. (DE)
Esper, Jan (UEK-B) SAI, ORCID, RID
Anchukaitis, K. J. (US)Zdroj.dok. Journal of Climate. - : American Mathematical Society - ISSN 0894-8755
Roč. 36, č. 18 (2023), s. 6261-6272Poč.str. 12 s. Jazyk dok. eng - angličtina Země vyd. US - Spojené státy americké Klíč. slova Northern Hemisphere ; Paleoclimate ; Surface temperature ; Automatic weather stations ; Bias ; Tree rings Vědní obor RIV DG - Vědy o atmosféře, meteorologie Obor OECD Meteorology and atmospheric sciences CEP EF16_019/0000797 GA MŠMT - Ministerstvo školství, mládeže a tělovýchovy Výzkumná infrastruktura CzeCOS IV - 90248 - Ústav výzkumu globální změny AV ČR, v. v. i. Způsob publikování Omezený přístup Institucionální podpora UEK-B - RVO:86652079 UT WOS 001053856600001 EID SCOPUS 85171892455 DOI 10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0806.1 Anotace Since the Paris Agreement, climate policy has focused on 1.5 & DEG and 2 & DEG C maximum global warming targets. However, the agreement lacks a formal definition of the nineteenth-century ,,pre-industrial,, temperature baseline for these targets. If global warming is estimated with respect to the 1850-1900 mean, as in the latest IPCC reports, uncertainty in early instrumental temperatures affects the quantification of total warming. Here, we analyze gridded datasets of instru-mental observations together with large-scale climate reconstructions from tree rings to evaluate nineteenth-century base-line temperatures. From 1851 to 1900 warm season temperatures of the Northern Hemisphere extratropical landmasses were 0.20 & DEG C cooler than the twentieth-century mean, with a range of 0.14 & DEG -0.26 & DEG C among three instrumental datasets. At the same time, proxy-based temperature reconstructions show on average 0.39 & DEG C colder conditions with a range of 0.19 & DEG -0.55 & DEG C among six records. We show that anomalously low reconstructed temperatures at high latitudes are underrep-resented in the instrumental fields, likely due to the lack of station records in these remote regions. The nineteenth-century offset between warmer instrumental and colder reconstructed temperatures is reduced by one-third if spatial coverage is reduced to those grid cells that overlap between the different temperature fields. The instrumental dataset from Berkeley Earth shows the smallest offset to the reconstructions indicating that additional stations included in this product, due to more liberal data selection, lead to cooler baseline temperatures. The limited early instrumental records and comparison with reconstructions suggest an overestimation of nineteenth-century temperatures, which in turn further reduces the prob-ability of achieving the Paris targets. Pracoviště Ústav výzkumu globální změny Kontakt Nikola Šviková, svikova.n@czechglobe.cz, Tel.: 511 192 268 Rok sběru 2024 Elektronická adresa https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/36/18/JCLI-D-22-0806.1.xml
Počet záznamů: 1