Is Recent Warming Exceeding the Range of the Past 125,000 Years?

0585856 - ÚVGZ 2025 RIV CH eng J - Článek v odborném periodiku
Esper, Jan - Schulz, P. - Büntgen, Ulf
Is Recent Warming Exceeding the Range of the Past 125,000 Years?
Atmosphere. Roč. 15, č. 4 (2024), č. článku 405. E-ISSN 2073-4433
Grant CEP: GA ČR(CZ) GA23-08049S
Institucionální podpora: RVO:86652079
Klíčová slova: temperature * holocene * reconstructions * circulation * proxy data * climate archive * global surface temperature * climate change * Holocene
Obor OECD: Meteorology and atmospheric sciences
Impakt faktor: 2.9, rok: 2022
Způsob publikování: Open access
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/15/4/405

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concluded that the latest decade was warmer than any multi-century period over the past 125,000 years. This statement rests on a comparison of modern instrumental measurements against the course of past temperatures reconstructed from natural proxy archives, such as lake and marine sediments, and peat bogs. Here, we evaluate this comparison with a focus on the hundreds of proxy records developed by paleoclimatologists across the globe to reconstruct climate variability over the Holocene (12,000 years) and preceded by the Last Glacial Period (125,000 years). Although the existing proxy data provide a unique opportunity to reconstruct low-frequency climate variability on centennial timescales, they lack temporal resolution and dating precision for contextualizing the most recent temperature extremes. While the IPCC's conclusion on the uniqueness of latest-decade warming is thus not supported by comparison with these smoothed paleotemperatures, it is still likely correct as ice core-derived forcing timeseries show that greenhouse gases were not elevated during any pre-instrumental period of the Holocene.
Trvalý link: https://hdl.handle.net/11104/0353538