Adapting Cropping Patterns to Climate Change: Risk Management Effectiveness of Diversification and Irrigation in Brandenburg (Germany)

0576664 - ÚVGZ 2024 RIV CH eng J - Článek v odborném periodiku
von Czettritz, H. J. - Hosseini-Yekani, S. - Schuler, J. - Kersebaum, Kurt Christian - Zander, P.
Adapting Cropping Patterns to Climate Change: Risk Management Effectiveness of Diversification and Irrigation in Brandenburg (Germany).
Agriculture-Basel. Roč. 13, č. 9 (2023), č. článku 1740. E-ISSN 2077-0472
Grant CEP: GA MŠMT(CZ) EF16_019/0000797
Výzkumná infrastruktura: CzeCOS IV - 90248
Institucionální podpora: RVO:86652079
Klíčová slova: Target-MOTAD * crop diversification * economic resilience * irrigation * hermes * climate risk
Obor OECD: Agriculture
Impakt faktor: 3.6, rok: 2022
Způsob publikování: Open access
https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0472/13/9/1740

Climate-induced production risk is expected to increase in the future. This study assesses the effectiveness of adapting crop rotations on arable farms in Brandenburg as a tool to enhance climate resilience. Two risk-minimizing measures are investigated: crop diversification and the inclusion of irrigated crops. Based on state-wide simulated yield data, the study compares two different scenarios. In the first scenario, the most profitable crop rotations based on predicted future weather conditions are chosen for each agro-ecological zone. In the second scenario, cropping plans are derived based on an adaption of the Target MOTAD (Minimization of Total Absolute Deviation) model taking climate-induced risks into account. A comparison of the scenarios shows a high risk reduction effect of diversification, while the economic risk reduction effect of irrigation only increases slightly. The trade-off between the highest possible gross margins and lower possible losses varies depending on the soil and climate conditions. Diversification contributed most to economic resilience in areas with moderate to low agricultural productivity. Subsidies focusing on diversification in less productive areas might be a tool to increase economic resilience with low risk-avoidance costs.
Trvalý link: https://hdl.handle.net/11104/0346238