Simulating Roman economies. Theories, methods, and computational models

0568436 - ARÚB 2023 RIV GB eng M - Část monografie knihy
Vlach, Marek
The Antonine Plague. Evaluation of its impact through epidemiological modelling.
Simulating Roman economies. Theories, methods, and computational models. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2022 - (Brughmans, T.; Wilson, A.), s. 69-108. Oxford Studies on the Roman Economy. ISBN 978-0-19-285782-8
Institucionální podpora: RVO:68081758
Klíčová slova: epidemiology * complex systems * modelling and simulation * agent-based modeling * palaeoepidemiology * epidemiological modelling * smallpox * Roman demography * Antonine Plague
Obor OECD: Archaeology
https://academic.oup.com/book/44160/chapter-abstract/372349918?redirectedFrom=fulltext

Since the beginning of discussions about the ‘third-century crisis’, the famous epidemic called the Antonine Plague has been often argued to be a key causal factor. During the crisis period, different segments and regions of the Roman world underwent various forms of turmoil (social unrest and uprising, economic problems, political instability etc.) or external incursions (warfare, barbarian raids). Our current scientific knowledge of the period suggests considerable ranges of the estimated death toll of the epidemic. The main intention of this paper is to test the plausibility of these different estimated impacts, on the basis of emulative digital modelling and simulation. A geographically explicit context, with a cellular framework, represents a workspace for spatio-temporal quantitative simulations to test various scenarios. Model input data include a reconstructed distribution of population density, infrastructure intensity, historical clinical data on the disease, and others. The vital part of simulation dynamics is defined through epidemiology mathematics (a compartment model with dynamics driven by differential equations). Coping with a large array of input variables, which are known and reconstructable only to a limited extent, has constrained our ability to test scenarios for assessing possible quantitative and spatial aspects of the epidemic impact within the demographic structures of the Roman Empire. Nevertheless, on basis of the simulation results it was possible to put some of existing estimates into new perspective regarding their general plausibility.
Trvalý link: https://hdl.handle.net/11104/0340020