Projected changes in frequency of compound events of strong wind and low temperature in EURO-CORDEX climate models

0542981 - ÚFA 2022 DE eng A - Abstrakt
Plavcová, Eva - Lhotka, Ondřej - Stryhal, Jan
Projected changes in frequency of compound events of strong wind and low temperature in EURO-CORDEX climate models.
EGU General Assembly 2021 (vEGU21: Gather Online). Göttingen: European Geosciences Union, 2021.
[EGU General Assembly Conference 2021. 19.04.2021-30.04.2021, online]
Institucionální podpora: RVO:68378289
Klíčová slova: weather extremes * global climate model * representative concentration pathway (RCP) emission scenarios * atmospheric circulation events
Obor OECD: Climatic research
https://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU21/EGU21-4994.html

Compound events of weather extremes considerably affect various sectors of human society and
natural environment and therefore it is essential to understand projected changes of their
characteristics in the future climate. We focus on the combination of low temperature and high
wind velocity, because their compound effect strongly influences human thermal comfort in cold
weather, as characterized by the wind chill factor. In our study, we analyse frequency of this
extreme events and projected changes of their characteristics in simulations of RCMs from the
EURO-CORDEX project. We investigate a set of 9 simulations of 3 different RCMs driven by 3
different global climate models which allow us to analyse the influence of driving data on the
RCM’s outputs. We focus on the Central European domain defined between 48–52°N and 10–19°E.
The frequency of the compound events from historical simulations over 1970-2100 are compared
to the projected frequencies under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios for the end of the
21st century (2070-2100). Since local climate is relatively tightly linked to a large-scale atmospheric
circulation over Europe in winter, we also evaluate links of the compound events to the
atmospheric circulation.
Trvalý link: http://hdl.handle.net/11104/0320299