The Role of Incumbency, Ethnicity, and New Parties in Electoral Volatility in Slovakia

0539667 - SOÚ 2021 RIV CZ eng J - Článek v odborném periodiku
Linek, Lukáš - Gyárfášová, O.
The Role of Incumbency, Ethnicity, and New Parties in Electoral Volatility in Slovakia.
Politologický časopis. Roč. 27, č. 3 (2020), s. 303-322. ISSN 1211-3247. E-ISSN 1805-9503
Grant CEP: GA ČR(CZ) GA19-06096S
Institucionální podpora: RVO:68378025
Klíčová slova: electoral volatility * party switching * Slovak elections
Obor OECD: Political science
Způsob publikování: Omezený přístup
https://www.politologickycasopis.cz/en/archive/2020/3/

This paper analyses electoral volatility in the 2020 Slovak elections at the level of individual voters using exit poll surveys. The availability of exit polls from the previous elections of 2012 and 2016 allows us to put the 2020 election in context and analyse the patterns (and deviances from them) observed across the three elections. Furthermore, the paper summarizes the aggregate volatility since 1992, demonstrating a high level of net volatility with peaks of over 30 percent. As for the individual level, the analysis concentrates on three important issues in volatility research: (1) vote losses of government parties and the incumbent effect, (2) the role of new parties in mobilization of previous non-voters and first-time voters, (3) since Slovakia is a country with a significant Hungarian minority, special attention is given to vote switching by Hungarian voters and more general patterns of ethnic voting.
Trvalý link: http://hdl.handle.net/11104/0317373