How robust are future projections of forest landscape dynamics? Insights from a systematic comparison of four forest landscape models

0533687 - BÚ 2021 RIV GB eng J - Článek v odborném periodiku
Petter, G. - Mairotta, P. - Albrich, K. - Bebi, P. - Brůna, Josef - Bugmann, H. - Haffenden, A. - Scheller, R. M. - Schmatz, D. R. - Seidl, R. - Speich, M. - Vacchiano, G. - Lischke, H.
How robust are future projections of forest landscape dynamics? Insights from a systematic comparison of four forest landscape models.
Environmental Modelling & Software. Roč. 134, December (2020), s. 1-13, č. článku 104844. ISSN 1364-8152. E-ISSN 1873-6726
Grant CEP: GA MŠMT LD15158
Institucionální podpora: RVO:67985939
Klíčová slova: forest landscape models * model comparision * future projections
Obor OECD: Forestry
Impakt faktor: 5.288, rok: 2020
Způsob publikování: Open access
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2020.104844

The first systematic comparison of forest landscape models shows that variance of model projections under several future scenarios is substantial and model differences explain most of the simulated variance. We advocate a more rigorous and systematic model evaluation and calibration, and a broader use of ensemble projections to quantify uncertainties in future landscape dynamics.
Trvalý link: http://hdl.handle.net/11104/0315141