Population Dynamics and Agglomeration Factors: A Non-Linear Threshold Estimation of Density Effects

0524399 - ÚVGZ 2021 RIV CH eng J - Článek v odborném periodiku
Ciommi, M. T. - Egidi, G. - Salvia, R. - Cividino, S. - Rontos, K. - Salvati, Luca
Population Dynamics and Agglomeration Factors: A Non-Linear Threshold Estimation of Density Effects.
Sustainability. Roč. 12, č. 6 (2020), č. článku 2257. E-ISSN 2071-1050
Grant CEP: GA MŠMT(CZ) LO1415
Výzkumná infrastruktura: CzeCOS II - 90061
Institucionální podpora: RVO:86652079
Klíčová slova: land-use changes * urban-growth * malthusian stagnation * carrying-capacity * sprawl * urbanization * cities * city * patterns * determinants * density-growth curve * urban expansion * municipalities * indicators * Mediterranean Europe
Obor OECD: Environmental sciences (social aspects to be 5.7)
Impakt faktor: 3.251, rok: 2020
Způsob publikování: Open access
https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/12/6/2257

Although Southern Europe is relatively homogeneous in terms of settlement characteristics and urban dynamics, spatial heterogeneity in its population distribution is still high, and differences across regions outline specific demographic patterns that require in-depth investigation. In such contexts, density-dependent mechanisms of population growth are a key factor regulating socio-demographic dynamics at various spatial levels. Results of a spatio-temporal analysis of the distribution of the resident population in Greece contributes to identifying latent (density-dependent) processes of metropolitan growth over a sufficiently long time interval (1961-2011). Identification of density-dependent patterns of population growth contributes to the analysis of socioeconomic factors underlying demographic divides, possibly distinguishing between the effects of population concentration and dispersion. Population growth rates were non-linearly correlated with population density, highlighting a positive (or negative) impact of urban concentration on demographic growth when population is lower (or higher) than a fixed threshold (2800 and 1300 inhabitants/km(2) in 1961 and 2011, respectively). In a context of low population density (less than 20 inhabitants/km(2)), the relationship between density and growth was again negative, contrasting with the positive and linear relationship observed in denser contexts. This result evidences a sort of 'depopulation' trap that leads to accelerated population decline under a defined density threshold. An improved understanding of density-dependent mechanisms of population growth and decline contributes to rethinking strategies of sustainable development and social policies more adapted to heterogeneous regional contexts.
Trvalý link: http://hdl.handle.net/11104/0308755