Predicted temperature-increase-induced global health burden and its regional variability

0508299 - ÚFA 2020 RIV US eng J - Článek v odborném periodiku
Lee, J. Y. - Kim, H. - Gasparrini, A. - Armstrong, B. - Bell, M.L. - Sera, F. - Lavigne, E. - Abrutzky, R. - Tong, S. - Coelho, M. S. Z. S. - Saldiva, P. H. N. - Correa, P.M. - Ortega, N. V. - Kan, H. - Garcia, S. O. - Kyselý, Jan - Urban, Aleš - Orru, H. - Indermitte, E. - Jaakkola, J.J.K. - Ryti, N.R.I. - Pascal, M. - Goodman, P.G. - Zeka, A. - Michelozzi, P. - Scortichini, M. - Hashizume, M. - Honda, Y. - Hurtado, M. - Cruz, J. - Seposo, X. - Nunes, B. - Teixeira, J. P. - Tobias, A. - Íñiguez, C. - Forsberg, B. - Åström, C. - Vicedo-Cabrera, A.M. - Ragettli, M.S. - Guo, Y. L. L. - Chen, B. Y. - Zanobetti, A. - Schwartz, J. - Dang, T.N. - Do Van, D. - Mayvaneh, F. - Overcenco, A. - Li, S. - Guo, Y.
Predicted temperature-increase-induced global health burden and its regional variability.
Environment International. Roč. 131, OCT (2019), č. článku 105027. ISSN 0160-4120. E-ISSN 1873-6750
Grant CEP: GA ČR(CZ) GA18-22125S
Institucionální podpora: RVO:68378289
Klíčová slova: Climate change * Mortality * Projection * Regional variation * Vulnerability
Obor OECD: Climatic research
Impakt faktor: 7.577, rok: 2019
Způsob publikování: Open access
https://reader.elsevier.com/reader/sd/pii/S016041201930368X?token=98B7D1C14422C1F52C94ED17C8BC07F9FF9CE7D22FCA0023AC541E1C575F02D025951823131A049E4CE4E6A300AB2336

An increase in the global health burden of temperature was projected for 459 locations in 28 countries worldwide under four representative concentration pathway scenarios until 2099. We determined that the amount of temperature increase for each 100 ppm increase in global CO2 concentrations is nearly constant, regardless of climate scenarios. The overall average temperature increase during 2010–2099 is largest in Canada (1.16 °C/100 ppm) and Finland (1.14 °C/100 ppm), while it is smallest in Ireland (0.62 °C/100 ppm) and Argentina (0.63 °C/100 ppm). In addition, for each 1 °C temperature increase, the amount of excess mortality is increased largely in tropical countries such as Vietnam (10.34%p/°C) and the Philippines (8.18%p/°C), while it is decreased in Ireland (−0.92%p/°C) and Australia (−0.32%p/°C). To understand the regional variability in temperature increase and mortality, we performed a regression-based modeling. We observed that the projected temperature increase is highly correlated with daily temperature range at the location and vulnerability to temperature increase is affected by health expenditure, and proportions of obese and elderly population.
Trvalý link: http://hdl.handle.net/11104/0299248