Herding, minority game, market clearing and efficient markets in a simple spin model framework

0507282 - ÚTIA 2020 RIV NL eng J - Článek v odborném periodiku
Krištoufek, Ladislav - Vošvrda, Miloslav
Herding, minority game, market clearing and efficient markets in a simple spin model framework.
Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation. Roč. 54, č. 1 (2018), s. 148-155. ISSN 1007-5704. E-ISSN 1878-7274
Grant CEP: GA ČR(CZ) GBP402/12/G097
GRANT EU: European Commission(XE) 612955 - FINMAP
Institucionální podpora: RVO:67985556
Klíčová slova: Ising model * Efficient market hypothesis * Monte Carlo simulation
Obor OECD: Applied Economics, Econometrics
Impakt faktor: 3.967, rok: 2018
Způsob publikování: Omezený přístup
http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2019/E/kristoufek-0507282.pdf https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1007570417301867

We present a novel approach towards the financial Ising model. Most studies utilize the model to find settings which generate returns closely mimicking the financial stylized facts such as fat tails, volatility clustering and persistence, and others. We tackle the model util- ity from the other side and look for the combination of parameters which yields return dynamics of the efficient market in the view of the efficient market hypothesis. Working with the Ising model, we are able to present nicely interpretable results as the model is based on only two parameters. Apart from showing the results of our simulation study, we offer a new interpretation of the Ising model parameters via inverse temperature and entropy. We show that in fact market frictions (to a certain level) and herding behavior of the market participants do not go against market efficiency but what is more, they are needed for the markets to be efficient.
Trvalý link: http://hdl.handle.net/11104/0298753