Modeling of passenger demand using mixture of Poisson components

0507178 - ÚTIA 2020 RIV PT eng C - Konferenční příspěvek (zahraniční konf.)
Petrouš, Matej - Suzdaleva, Evženie - Nagy, Ivan
Modeling of passenger demand using mixture of Poisson components.
Proceedings of the 16th International Conference on Informatics in Control, Automation and Robotics (ICINCO 2019). Setubal: SCITEPRESS, 2019 - (Gusikhin, O.; Madani, K.; Zaytoon, J.), s. 617-624. ISBN 978-989-758-380-3.
[International Conference on Informatics in Control, Automation and Robotics (ICINCO 2019) /16./. Prague (CZ), 29.07.2019-31.07.2019]
Grant CEP: GA MŠMT(CZ) 8A17006
Institucionální podpora: RVO:67985556
Klíčová slova: mixture estimation * Poisson components * Passenger demand
Obor OECD: Statistics and probability
http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2019/ZS/suzdaleva-0507178.pdf

The paper deals with the problem of modeling the passenger demand in the tram transportation network. The passenger demand on the individual tram stops is naturally influenced by the number of boarding and disembarking passengers, whose measuring is expensive and therefore they should be modeled and predicted. A mixture of Poisson components with the dynamic pointer estimated by recursive Bayesian estimation algorithms is used to describe the mentioned variables, while their prediction is solved with the help of the Poisson regression. The main contributions of the presented approach are: (i) the model of the number of boarding and disembarking passengers. (ii) the real-time data incorporation into the model. (iii) the recursive estimation algorithm with the normal approximation of the proximity function. The results of experiments with real data and the comparison with theoretical counterparts are demonstrated.
Trvalý link: http://hdl.handle.net/11104/0298563