COMPARISON OF EXTREME PRECIPITATION EVENTS SIMULATED BY THE NWP MODEL COSMO WITH ADJUSTED WEATHER RADAR DATA IN A HIGH TEMPORAL RESOLUTION

0497600 - ÚFA 2019 NL eng A - Abstrakt
Bližňák, Vojtěch - Zacharov, Petr, jr. - Kašpar, Marek - Müller, Miloslav
COMPARISON OF EXTREME PRECIPITATION EVENTS SIMULATED BY THE NWP MODEL COSMO WITH ADJUSTED WEATHER RADAR DATA IN A HIGH TEMPORAL RESOLUTION.
10th European Conference on Radar in Meteorology and Hydrology (ERAD 2018). Ede-Wageningen: Wageningen University & Research, 2018 - (Vos, L.; Leijnse, H.; Uijlenhoet, R.). s. 226
[European Conference on Radar in Meteorology and Hydrology (ERAD 2018) /10./. 01.07.2018-06.07.2018, Ede-Wageningen]
Institucionální podpora: RVO:68378289
Klíčová slova: extreme precipitation events * precipitation estimates * radar data * precipitation forecast * numerical weather prediction (NWP) models
Obor OECD: Meteorology and atmospheric sciences
http://library.wur.nl/WebQuery/wurpubs/539463

Extreme precipitation events (EPEs) belong to the most studied natural hazards
because of their extra high impacts on the human society. However, quantitative
precipitation estimates based on weather radar data with a high temporal and spatial
resolution along with a sufficient level of accuracy is available for the last several
years only and is completely missing for historical EPEs. On the other hand, quantitative
precipitation forecast produced by high-resolution numerical weather prediction
(NWP) models can be considered as a competitive tool to obtain information
about temporal course of historical EPEs. Nevertheless, their main disadvantage
is a limited accuracy of generated forecasts coming from initial and boundary conditions
as well as due to the large spatial and temporal variability of precipitation
systems. The contribution will present a new correction procedure that improves an
accuracy of raw NWP model forecasts in a 10-min temporal step. The procedure
first adjusts model precipitation sum by daily rain gauge measurements and then
correct a localization of 10-min precipitation totals based on the highest correlation
coefficient between the model and observed precipitation sums. The selected EPEs
that occurred over the Czech Republic between 2002 and 2013 will be simulated
by the non-hydrostatic NWP model COSMO with a spatial resolution of 2.8 km
and temporal step of 10-minutes. A corrected and raw precipitation forecasts will
be compared and objectively verified with adjusted weather radar data. The adjustment
procedure combines radar reflectivity at 2 km (CAPPI 2 km) interpolated
from two adjacent radar beams and daily rain gauge measurements collected from
the whole territory of the Czech Republic. The verification will be performed using
classical (e.g., correlation coefficient) as well as spatial (e.g., Fractions Skill Score)
verification scores.

Trvalý link: http://hdl.handle.net/11104/0290146