The use of prognostic spatial information at the evaluation of the QPF for heavy convective rainfalls

0479101 - ÚFA 2018 DE eng A - Abstrakt
Zacharov, Petr, jr. - Řezáčová, Daniela - Brožková, R.
The use of prognostic spatial information at the evaluation of the QPF for heavy convective rainfalls.
9th European Conference on Severe Storms (ECSS 2017). Amtsgericht München: European Severe Storms Laboratory e.V. (ESSL), 2017. ECSS2017-49.
[European Conference on Severe Storms (ECSS) /9./. 18.09.2017-22.09.2017]
Institucionální podpora: RVO:68378289
Klíčová slova: quantitative precipitation forecast * heavy convective rain * verification * numerical weather prediction model ALADIN
Kód oboru RIV: DG - Vědy o atmosféře, meteorologie
http://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/ECSS2017/ECSS2017-49.pdf

We present the results of the last testing the verification of Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) by spatial
techniques. The QPF relates to the patterns with heavy convective rainfalls over the CR. The work aims at testing
the hypothesis how to express the QPF uncertainty in the forecast time when the precipitation data are not available
yet. We apply the QPF verification to several QPF categories which significantly differ in the verification results.
The tests referred to in this contribution show (a) what spatial characteristics are suitable to describe the structure
of the QPF field, (b) what is the relationship between diagnostic and prognostic spatial characteristics, and (c) how
differ the verification results following from standard verification in comparison with the verification stratified by
diagnostic and prognostic parameters.
The testing covers the QPF of 3h precipitation produced by the NWP model ALADIN CZ, operated in the Czech
Hydro-meteorological institute (CHMI). The CHMI operational product MERGE, which merges the radar-based
rain rate with the data from the gauge stations, was the source of the verification data. The diagnostic and
prognostic spatial characteristics include basic precipitation characteristics over the domain, and the structural
SAL based parameters. The verification uses the FSS (Fraction Skill Score) approach which means that various
values of precipitation threshold and of the size elementary areas are studied.
Trvalý link: http://hdl.handle.net/11104/0275120