Analysis of Meteorological Effects on the Incidence of Tick-borne Encephalitis in the Czech Republic over a Thirty-year Period

0473776 - ÚI 2018 RIV GB eng J - Článek v odborném periodiku
Brabec, Marek - Daniel, M. - Malý, Marek - Danielová, V. - Kříž, B. - Kott, I. - Beneš, Č.
Analysis of Meteorological Effects on the Incidence of Tick-borne Encephalitis in the Czech Republic over a Thirty-year Period.
Virology: Research & Reviews. Roč. 1, č. 1 (2017), č. článku March 13. ISSN 2514-4138
Grant ostatní: GA MZd(CZ) NT11425
Institucionální podpora: RVO:67985807
Klíčová slova: tick-borne encephalitis incidence * Ixodes ricinus * ambient temperature * poisson model * generalized additive model * seasonal trends
Obor OECD: Statistics and probability

The goal is to analyse the effect of climatic factors on the incidence of tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) in three adjacent, high-incidence regions of the Czech Republic (CZ) that differed considerably in the baseline incidence and in the timing of high incidence period. The basis for the analysis were the meteorological data from a 30-year database (1982-2011) of daily air temperature and precipitation measurements and time-matched reports of TBE cases defined by the onset of symptoms. A semi-parametric Poisson regression model revealed a statistically significant relationship between the average daily ambient air temperature and incidence of TBE. The shapes of the dependence were similar in all three regions under study. The analysis of the available data did not show a statistically significant relationship between the precipitation amount and incidence of TBE. Other statistically significant predictors were the trend over calendar years, monthly seasonality and trend-seasonality interaction (the shape of the monthly seasonality varies over years), and day of week. The climate changes had differentiated effects on TBE increase depending on the local environmental conditions as can be illustrated by the variations between the three regions not only in the TBE incidence level but also in the shape of the trend over years.
Trvalý link: http://hdl.handle.net/11104/0270914