Global Change & Ecosystems

0470786 - ÚVGZ 2017 RIV CZ eng M - Část monografie knihy
Dolák, Lukáš - Řezníčková, Ladislava - Dobrovolný, Petr - Štěpánek, Petr - Zahradníček, Pavel
Extreme precipitation totals under present and future climate according to regional climate models.
Global Change & Ecosystems. Volume 2. Brno: Ústav výzkumu globální změny AV ČR, v. v.i., 2016 - (Vačkář, D.; Janouš, D.), s. 27-37. ISBN 978-80-87902-17-2
Grant CEP: GA MŠMT(CZ) LO1415
Grant ostatní: EHP(CZ) EHP-CZ02-OV-1-014-2014
Program: CZ02
Institucionální podpora: RVO:67179843
Klíčová slova: three-day precipitation totals * regional climate models * return periods * the Czech Republic
Kód oboru RIV: DG - Vědy o atmosféře, meteorologie

It is very likely that the intensity of extreme precipitation over land in the middle latitudes is going to increase by 2100.This chapter deals with comparison between measured (1981–2010) and simulated (2010–2100) three-day precipitation totals on the area of the Czech Republic. The future precipitation totals were calculated on the basis of five regional climate models (CNRM_ALADIN, EC-EARTH, EC-EARTH_RACMO, MOHC_HADGEM a MPI-ESM-LR) for various recurrence intervals (N=5, 10, 20, 50 and 100 years) and emission scenarios (4.5 and 8.5). The outputs of models were compared for three defined periods (2021–2040, 2041–2060 and 2081–2100) with emphasis on summer (JJA) and annual precipitation. The regional climate models predict in most cases marked increase of precipitation totals for determined recurrence interval in dependence on applied emission scenario and analysed period. However, spatial variability keeps the similar patterns as at present. Acquired model three-day precipitation totals should serve as the basis for constitution of the next adaptive strategy of the Czech Republic to 2100.
Trvalý link: http://hdl.handle.net/11104/0268340