Record-breaking 2015 heat waves in Central Europe: how to view them in the climate change context?\n

0468261 - ÚVGZ 2017 DE eng A - Abstrakt
Lhotka, Ondřej - Plavcová, E. - Kyselý, Jan
Record-breaking 2015 heat waves in Central Europe: how to view them in the climate change context?
.
Geophysical Research Abstracts. Göttingen: European Geosciences Union, 2016. ISSN 1607-7962.
[EGU General Assembly 2016. 17.04.2016-22.04.2016, Vienna]
Institucionální podpora: RVO:67179843
Klíčová slova: heat waves * climate change scenarios * Central Europe
Kód oboru RIV: DG - Vědy o atmosféře, meteorologie

The 2015 summer was the warmest summer ever observed in Central Europe according to many characteristics,
including the overall severity of heat waves. We assess how unusual this summer was by i) comparing the seasonal
temperature anomalies and severity of heat waves against long-term temperature records at Central European
stations, ii) evaluating its temperature characteristics at the continental scale against hot summers and major heat
waves affecting Europe recently (including the 2003 western-European heat waves and the 2010 Russian heat
waves), and iii) identifying time slices in climate change scenarios for the 21st century in which similar events are
projected to occur over Central Europe at least once per decade. In the last point, we make use of a large ensemble
of RCM simulations from CORDEX and ENSEMBLES projects and critically evaluate their ability to simulate
events such as the 2015 summer (in terms of both seasonal temperature anomalies and heat waves, including their
spatial extent). We examine also how results for the climate change scenarios depend on radiative forcing and
driving global models.
Trvalý link: http://hdl.handle.net/11104/0266092