Record-breaking 2015 heat waves in Central Europe: how to view them in/nthe climate change context?

0459505 - ÚFA 2017 DE eng A - Abstrakt
Lhotka, Ondřej - Plavcová, Eva - Kyselý, Jan
Record-breaking 2015 heat waves in Central Europe: how to view them in/nthe climate change context?
Geophysical Research Abstracts. Göttingen: European Geosciences Union, 2016. EGU2016-7126-1. ISSN 1607-7962.
[EGU General Assembly 2016. 17.04.2016-22.04.2016, Vienna]
Institucionální podpora: RVO:68378289
Klíčová slova: heat waves * climate change scenarios * Central Europe
Kód oboru RIV: DG - Vědy o atmosféře, meteorologie; DG - Vědy o atmosféře, meteorologie (UEK-B)
http://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU2016/EGU2016-7126-1.pdf

The 2015 summer was the warmest summer ever observed in Central Europe according to many characteristics,/nincluding the overall severity of heat waves. We assess how unusual this summer was by i) comparing the seasonal/ntemperature anomalies and severity of heat waves against long-term temperature records at Central European/nstations, ii) evaluating its temperature characteristics at the continental scale against hot summers and major heat/nwaves affecting Europe recently (including the 2003 western-European heat waves and the 2010 Russian heat/nwaves), and iii) identifying time slices in climate change scenarios for the 21st century in which similar events are/nprojected to occur over Central Europe at least once per decade. In the last point, we make use of a large ensemble/nof RCM simulations from CORDEX and ENSEMBLES projects and critically evaluate their ability to simulate/nevents such as the 2015 summer (in terms of both seasonal temperature anomalies and heat waves, including their/nspatial extent). We examine also how results for the climate change scenarios depend on radiative forcing and/ndriving global models.
Trvalý link: http://hdl.handle.net/11104/0259681