Počet záznamů: 1  

Tailored vs Black-Box Models for Forecasting Hourly Average Solar Irradiance

  1. 1.
    0436527 - ÚI 2015 RIV US eng J - Článek v odborném periodiku
    Brabec, Marek - Paulescu, M. - Badescu, V.
    Tailored vs Black-Box Models for Forecasting Hourly Average Solar Irradiance.
    Solar Energy. Roč. 111, January (2015), s. 320-331. ISSN 0038-092X. E-ISSN 1471-1257
    Grant CEP: GA MŠMT LD12009
    Grant ostatní: European Cooperation in Science and Technology(XE) COST ES1002
    Institucionální podpora: RVO:67985807
    Klíčová slova: solar irradiance * forecasting * tilored statistical models
    Kód oboru RIV: BB - Aplikovaná statistika, operační výzkum
    Impakt faktor: 3.685, rok: 2015

    Accurate prediction of solar radiation is of high importance for proper operation of the electrical grid. Over short horizons, forecasting solar irradiance is often performed by extrapolation of field measurements. Four tailored statistical models for forecasting hourly average solar irradiance are proposed and assessed in this paper. These follow from the well-known regression and ARIMA class of models, but bring into the model formulation various physically motivated additional features. These capture the distribution of solar radiation more effectively. Their performance is compared with the performance of a standard model used in the strictly black-box style often encountered in practice. Overall results demonstrate that the proposed models are significantly more accurate than the standard model, under conditions of mostly cloudy skies.
    Trvalý link: http://hdl.handle.net/11104/0240249

     
     
Počet záznamů: 1  

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