Modeling Kenya

0426524 - NHÚ 2014 RIV CZ eng V - Výzkumná zpráva
Auda, O. - Bečičková, H. - Cincibuch, M. - Čižmár, P. - Hřebíček, H. - Janjgava, Batlome - Kameník, O. - Katreniaková, D. - Kejak, Michal - Lamazoshvili, Beka - Lukáč, J. - Machala, J. - Menkyna, Robert - Musil, K. - Rasulova, Khanifakhon - Remo, A. - Vávra, D. - Vlček, J. - Zemčík, Petr
Modeling Kenya.
Prague: OGResearch, 2011. 135 s.
Grant CEP: GA MŠMT(CZ) LF11018
Institucionální podpora: RVO:67985998
Klíčová slova: Kenya * forecasting and policy analysis system
Kód oboru RIV: AH - Ekonomie

The report has three chapters. Chapter 1 summarizes the main features of the Kenyan economy relevant for building the FPAS. Chapter 2 presents the structural macroeconomic model and its properties captured by the decompositions of variances of the model’s variables in terms of the model shocks and by its impulse-response functions. This chapter also describes Bayesian vector autoregressions used for the near-term forecasting. Chapter 3 evaluates how the models perform empirically. The forecasting power is assessed both in the sample and by using an out-of-the-sample comparison with the standard random-walk benchmark. We conclude that the FPAS performs satisfactorily in this comparison.
Trvalý link: http://hdl.handle.net/11104/0232221