Quantitative expression of uncertainty in nowcasting heavy convective precipitation in central Europe by extrapolation methods

0381657 - ÚFA 2013 FR eng C - Konferenční příspěvek (zahraniční konf.)
Mejsnar, Jan - Sokol, Zbyněk - Pešice, Petr
Quantitative expression of uncertainty in nowcasting heavy convective precipitation in central Europe by extrapolation methods.
ERAD 2012 - 7th European Conference on Radar in Meteorology and Hydrology. Toulouse: Météo France, 2012.
[ERAD 2012 - European Conference on Radar in Meteorology and Hydrology /7./. Toulouse (FR), 24.06.2012-29.06.2012]
Grant CEP: GA MŠMT ME09033
Institucionální podpora: RVO:68378289
Klíčová slova: precipitation nowcasting * Lagrangien extrapolation * uncertainty in precipitation
Kód oboru RIV: DG - Vědy o atmosféře, meteorologie
http://www.meteo.fr/cic/meetings/2012/ERAD/extended_abs/NOW_250_ext_abs.pdf

Methods extrapolating observed radar reflectivity along Lagrangian trajectories are frequently used for nowcasting of precipitation. The forecast errors of these methods have two basic components. The first one stems from inaccurate estimates of the motion fields used for calculating trajectories. The second one follows from the assumtion that observed radar reflectivity does not change in another way that by the advection. Some research of these aspects has already been done but it concentrated to another reagions than to Central Europe. The aim of this study is to quantify these two errors and then quantify predictability and uncertainy in forecasting convective precipitation. We will analyze heavy convective storms which occurred in the Czech Republic in 2009 and 2010 by means of several extrapolation methods. The main attention will be devoted to analyses of forecasted and observed accumulated precipitation, in contrast to usually analyzed forecasted reflectivity, over 60 and 30 minutes. We will concentrate on error analyses of precipitation forecasts for „typical“ Czech small catchments, the size of which is from 100 to 200 km2.
Trvalý link: http://hdl.handle.net/11104/0212073