Projected changes in flood-generating precipitation extremes over the Czech Republic in high-resolution regional climate models

0370570 - ÚFA 2012 RIV SK eng J - Článek v odborném periodiku
Kyselý, Jan - Gaál, Ladislav - Beranová, Romana
Projected changes in flood-generating precipitation extremes over the Czech Republic in high-resolution regional climate models.
Journal of Hydrology and Hydromechanics. Roč. 59, č. 4 (2011), s. 217-227. ISSN 0042-790X. E-ISSN 1338-4333
Grant CEP: GA ČR GAP209/10/2045; GA AV ČR KJB300420801
Výzkumný záměr: CEZ:AV0Z30420517
Klíčová slova: precipitation extremes * regional frequency analysis * climate change * regional climate models * Czech Republic
Kód oboru RIV: DG - Vědy o atmosféře, meteorologie
Impakt faktor: 0.340, rok: 2011
http://dlib.lib.cas.cz/6965/1/2011_59_4_kysely_217.pdf

Climate change scenarios of high quantiles of 5-day precipitation amounts (proxies for flood-generating events) over the Czech Republic are evaluated in an ensemble of high-resolution Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations from the ENSEMBLES project. The climate change scenarios for the late 21st century (2070–99) show widespread increases in high quantiles of 5-day precipitation amounts in winter, consistent with projected changes in mean winter precipitation. In summer, increases in precipitation extremes occur despite an overall drying, which may have important hydrological implications. The spatial pattern of projected changes in summer precipitation extremes, with larger increases in the western part of the area and smaller changes towards east, may point to a declining role of Mediterranean cyclones in producing precipitation extremes in Central Europe in a future climate.
Trvalý link: http://hdl.handle.net/11104/0006791