Understanding the Plott-Wit-Yang paradox

0349763 - NHU-C 2011 GB eng J - Článek v odborném periodiku
Kálovcová, Katarína - Ortmann, Andreas
Understanding the Plott-Wit-Yang paradox.
Journal of Prediction Markets. Roč. 3, č. 3 (2009), s. 33-44. ISSN 1750-6751
Grant CEP: GA MŠMT LC542
Výzkumný záměr: CEZ:AV0Z70850503
Klíčová slova: experimental betting markets * private information * information aggregation
Kód oboru RIV: AH - Ekonomie

Plott, Wit & Yang (2003) conduct a betting market experiment and find:First, information was aggregated. This suggests that traders updated their private information based on observed market odds. Second, a model based only on the use of private information seems to fit their data best. The authors call this paradoxical. Because the original data are lost, we replicate their experiment. Our results suggest that the paradox seems due to aggregate rather than individual level data analysis. We analyze the individual level data and explain the paradoxical results reported in Plott et al. (2003).
Trvalý link: http://hdl.handle.net/11104/0189916