0176397 - UFA-U 20020206 RIV CZ eng J - Článek v odborném periodiku
Kyselý, Jan
Probability estimates of extreme temperature events: stochastic modelling approach vs. extreme value distributions.
Studia geophysica et geodaetica. Roč. 46, - (2002), s. 93-112. ISSN 0039-3169. E-ISSN 1573-1626
Grant CEP: GA ČR GA205/99/1561; GA AV ČR IAA3042903
Výzkumný záměr: CEZ:AV0Z3042911
Klíčová slova: autoregressive model * extreme value distribution * L moments
Kód oboru RIV: DG - Vědy o atmosféře, meteorologie
Impakt faktor: 0.571, rok: 2002

The paper deals with probability estimates of temperature extremes (annual temperature maxima and heat waves) in the Czech Republic. Two statistical methods of the probability estimations are compared; one based on the stochastic modelling of time series of daily maximum temperature (TMAX) using the first-order autoregressive (AR(1)) model, the other consisting in fitting extreme value distribution to the sample of annual temperature peaks. Application of the appropriate statistical tools indicates that the heat wave and particularly the long period of consecutive tropical days in 1994 were likely a more rare event than the record-breaking temperatures in July 1983 exceeding 40~C.
Trvalý link: http://hdl.handle.net/11104/0073373