Predicted range shifts of alien tree species in Europe

0574207 - BÚ 2024 RIV NL eng J - Journal Article
Puchałka, R. - Paź-Dyderska, S. - Jagodziński, A. M. - Sádlo, Jiří - Vítková, Michaela - Klisz, M. - Koniakin, S. - Prokopuk, Y. - Netsvetov, M. - Nicolescu, V.-N. - Zlatanov, T. - Mionskowski, M. - Dyderski, M. K.
Predicted range shifts of alien tree species in Europe.
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. Roč. 341, 15 October (2023), č. článku 109650. ISSN 0168-1923. E-ISSN 1873-2240
R&D Projects: GA TA ČR(CZ) SS02030018; GA ČR GF23-05403K
Institutional support: RVO:67985939
Keywords : introduced tree species * MaxEnt method * SSPs climate scenarios
OECD category: Forestry
Impact factor: 6.2, year: 2022
Method of publishing: Limited access
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109650

Alien tree species are considered both a threat to nature conservation and a base for forest management. We compiled species occurrences from biodiversity databases, forest inventories, and literature data. We modeledthe availability of potential niches using the MaxEnt method and bioclimatic variables for current conditions,2041–2060, and 2061–2080 periods. We used four climate scenarios: SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP485. Theresults confirm our hypotheses that, (i) coniferous species will contract, and deciduous trees will expand theirclimatic niche, (ii) a significant part of the areas where the studied species currently occur will be outside theirclimatic optimum in the coming decades, (iii) changes in the climatic optimum distribution will be greater in the2041–2060 period than in 2061–2080. These predicted shifts are relevant for evidence-based management insites already occupied by the studied alien trees. Our results are also relevant to the development of preventionand early detection measures in areas predicted to become climatically suitable for the studied species.
Permanent Link: https://hdl.handle.net/11104/0348163