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Using FlamMap to assess wildfire behavior in Bohemian Switzerland National Park

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Abstract

The 2022 summer fire in the Bohemian Switzerland National Park (BSNP) is the largest in the 30-year recorded history of the Czech Republic, with an affected area of over 1000 ha. The FlamMap fire modeling system was used to investigate the fire behavior in the BSNP and to evaluate scenarios under a range of fuel types, fuel moistures, and weather conditions. The model was used to simulate fire conditions, propagation, and extent. We focused on matching the observed fire perimeter and fire behavior characteristics. The fire occurred in a region of the BSNP heavily affected by Spruce bark beetle (Ips typographus L.) infestation; hence, most of the burned area encompassed dead spruce forest (Picea abies Karst.). The best FlamMap simulations of the observed fire behavior and progression were compared with several created scenarios exhibiting various input conditions. These scenarios included a fire in a healthy spruce forest, clearcuts, or different meteorological conditions. We could calibrate and use FlamMap to recreate the 2022 summer wildfire in the BSNP under the observed conditions. It was found that the fire would have likely spread to the observed final perimeter even if standing dead trees had been removed, albeit at a lower fire intensity and with a considerably shorter duration. Alternatively, if healthy standing vegetation with a closed canopy had been present, the wildfire perimeter would have reached approximately half the observed value. Similar results were obtained for both the non-native spruce forest and deciduous forest, which is a native alternative.

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The datasets will be made available by the corresponding author for research use on request.

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Funding

The lead author (L.K.) work and manuscript development was supported by the Internal Grant Agency of the Faculty of AgriSciences at Mendel University in Brno as part of the research project AF-IGA2023-IP-009, "Forecast of fire risk for the agricultural and forestry landscape of the Czech Republic." The contribution of M.T., the software FlamMap access, high resolution weather and climate data, remote sensing data access as well as LIDAR data aerial campaign were funded by the research program SustES—Adaptation strategies for sustainable ecosystem services and food security under adverse environmental conditions (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16_019/0000797). The inputs of numerical weather prediction models and reliability of drought and wind speed forecasts used in the study were prepared based on the methodology developed by M.B. in IGA project AF-IGA2022-IP-029, "Reliability of short-term and long-term drought forecasts in the Czech and Slovak Republics."

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Global Change Research Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences, Brno, Czech Republic

    Lucie Kudláčková, Markéta Poděbradská, Monika Bláhová, Emil Cienciala, Jan Novotný, Pavel Zahradníček, Petr Štěpánek, Miroslav Pikl, Martin Možný, Zdeněk Žalud & Miroslav Trnka

  2. Institute of Agrosystems and Bioclimatology, Mendel University in Brno, Brno, Czech Republic

    Lucie Kudláčková, Markéta Poděbradská, Monika Bláhová, Zdeněk Žalud & Miroslav Trnka

  3. IFER – Institute of Forest Ecosystem Research, Ltd., Jílové u Prahy, Czech Republic

    Emil Cienciala & Jana Beranová

  4. Missoula Fire Sciences Laboratory, US Forest Service, USDA, Missoula, USA

    Charles McHugh & Mark Finney

  5. Brno Regional Office, Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, Brno, Czech Republic

    Pavel Zahradníček & Petr Štěpánek

  6. Forestry and Game Management Research Institute, Jíloviště, Czech Republic

    Rostislav Linda

  7. Bohemian Switzerland National Park, Krásná Lípa, Czech Republic

    Dana Vébrová

  8. Doksany Observatory, Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, Doksany, Czech Republic

    Martin Možný

  9. Department of Forest Management, Czech University of Life Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic

    Peter Surový

Authors
  1. Lucie Kudláčková
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  2. Markéta Poděbradská
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  3. Monika Bláhová
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  4. Emil Cienciala
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  5. Jana Beranová
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  6. Charles McHugh
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  7. Mark Finney
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  8. Jan Novotný
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  9. Pavel Zahradníček
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  10. Petr Štěpánek
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  11. Rostislav Linda
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  12. Miroslav Pikl
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  13. Dana Vébrová
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  14. Martin Možný
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  15. Peter Surový
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  16. Zdeněk Žalud
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  17. Miroslav Trnka
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Contributions

All authors contributed to the study conception and design. Material preparation, data collection and analysis were performed by LK, MB and MP. The first draft of the manuscript was written by LK, and all authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript. All the authors have read and approved the final manuscript.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Lucie Kudláčková.

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Appendix

Appendix

See Figs. 9, 10, 11, and 12.

Fig. 9
figure 9

Number of FRS CR wildfire interventions concerning agricultural and forest landscapes from 2001 to 2020 (obtained and created from the Ministry of the Interior—Directorate General of the Fire Rescue Service of the Czech Republic 2021)

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Fig. 10
figure 10

Modeled flame length under each selected scenario

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Fig. 11
figure 11

Fireline intensity under each selected scenario

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Fig. 12
figure 12

Crown fire activity under each selected scenario

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Kudláčková, L., Poděbradská, M., Bláhová, M. et al. Using FlamMap to assess wildfire behavior in Bohemian Switzerland National Park. Nat Hazards 120, 3943–3977 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-023-06361-8

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