biologia plantarum

Biologia plantarum 64:865-880, 2020 | DOI: 10.32615/bp.2021.005

Future agroclimatic conditions and implications for European grasslands

M. TRNKA^1,2*, J. BALEK^1,2, M.A. SEMENOV³, D. SEMERÁDOVÁ^1,2, M. BĚLÍNOVÁ¹, P. HLAVINKA^1,2, J.E. OLESEN^1,4,8, J. EITZINGER⁵, A. SCHAUMBERGER⁶, P. ZAHRADNÍČEK¹, D. KOPECKÝ⁷, Z. ŽALUD^1,2

¹ Global Change Research Institute CAS Brno CZ-60300, Czech Republic

² Mendel University in Brno, Institute of Agrosystems and Bioclimatology, Brno CZ-61300, Czech Republic

³ Rothamsted Research, Harpenden, Herts, AL5 2JQ, UK

⁴ Aarhus University, Department of Agroecology, 8830 Tjele, Denmark

⁵ University of Natural Ressources and Life Sciences, Institute of Meteorology and Climatology, 1180 Wien, Austria

⁶ Agricultural Research and Education Centre Raumberg-Gumpenstein, 8952 Irdning-Donnersbachtal, Austria

⁷ Institute of Experimental Botany, CAS, Centre of the Region Haná for Biotechnological and Agricultural Research, Olomouc, 77900, Czech Republic

⁸ iCLIMATE Interdisciplinary Centre for Climate Change, Aarhus University, 4000 Roskilde, Denmark

Grasslands play a significant role in livestock fodder production and thus, contribute to food security worldwide while providing numerous additional ecosystem services. However, how agroclimatic conditions and adverse weather events relevant for grasslands will change across the European grassland areas has not been examined to date. Using a single reference setup for soil and management over 476 European sites defined by climate stations, we show the probability of eight selected adverse weather events with the potential to significantly affect grassland productivity under climate change and how these events vary regionally across Europe. Changes in these eight key agroclimatic indicators create markedly specific spatial patterns. We found that by 2050, the exposure of the south and west European grasslands to heat and drought may double in comparison with today and that the area with frequent occurrences of heat and drought will expand northwards. However, across Ukraine, Belarus, and the Baltic countries to southern Finland and Sweden, the likelihood of these events is likely to decrease. While changing cultivars and management strategies are unavoidable, shifting grassland production to other regions to reduce the risk may not be possible as the risk of adverse events beyond the key grassland-growing areas increases even further. Moreover, we found marked changes in the overall thermal and water regimes across European regions. The effect of adverse weather events in the future could be different in other regions of the world compared to regions in Europe, emphasizing the importance of conducting similar analyses for other major grassland producing regions. To mitigate the impact of climate change, new ways of maintaining grassland productivity need to be developed. These methods include more efficient selection of species mixtures for specific regions, including increased use of legumes and forbs; incorporation of new genetic resources, including the development of hybrid cultivars, such as Festulolium hybrids; and incorporation of state-of-the-art technologies in breeding programs and new grazing management.

Keywords: climate change, extreme events, grassland productivity, LARS-WG

Received: September 7, 2020; Revised: January 1, 2021; Accepted: January 14, 2021; Published online: February 22, 2021  Show citation