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A new methodology is outlined and demonstrated on the improvement of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis based on the random sampling method

SYSNO ASEP	0548403
Document Type	J - Journal Article
R&D Document Type	Journal Article
Subsidiary J	Článek ve WOS
Title	A new methodology is outlined and demonstrated on the improvement of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis based on the random sampling method
Author(s)	Pecha, Petr (UTIA-B)_{RID, ORCID} Kárný, Miroslav (UTIA-B)_{RID, ORCID}
Source Title	Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment. - : Springer - ISSN 1436-3240 Roč. 36, č. 6 (2022), s. 1703-1719
Number of pages	17 s.
Publication form	Print - P
Language	eng - English
Country	CH - Switzerland
Keywords	Sensitivity study ; Sampling-based methods ; Random input parameters ; Calm atmosphere ; Radioactivity dissemination ; Radioactive hot spots
Subject RIV	BC - Control Systems Theory
OECD category	Computer sciences, information science, bioinformathics (hardware development to be 2.2, social aspect to be 5.8)
R&D Projects	LTC18075 GA MŠMT - Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports (MEYS)
Method of publishing	Limited access
Institutional support	UTIA-B - RVO:67985556
UT WOS	000710852800001
EID SCOPUS	85117951258
DOI	10.1007/s00477-021-02110-0
Annotation	In several hours of a calm meteorological situation, a relatively significant level of radioactivity may accumulate around the source. When the calm situation expires, a wind-induced convective movement of the air immediately begins. Random realisations of the input atmospheric dispersion model parameters for this CALM scenario are generated using Latin Hypercube Sampling scheme. The resultant complex random radiological trajectories, passing through both calm and convective stages of the release scenario, represent the necessary prerequisite for the prospective uncertainty analysis (UA) and the sensitivity analysis (SA). The novel approximation-based (AB) solution replaces the non-Gaussian sum of individual puffs at the end of the calm period with one Gaussian ‘‘super-puff’’ distribution. This substantially accelerates generation of a sufficiently large number of random realisations for the radiological trajectories, thus facilitating the subsequent UA and SA. Both of these procedures exploit a common mapping between the pairs of calculated output fields on the one hand and the realisation vectors of the associated random input parameters on the other hand. This paper presents the necessary technical background, as well as the idea of the AB solution and its use. Examples of 2-D random trajectories of deposited 137Cs are presented in a graphical form. Global sensitivity analysis based on random sampling methods is outlined and improved feasibility o f the originally long-running computation is demonstrated.
Workplace	Institute of Information Theory and Automation
Contact	Markéta Votavová, votavova@utia.cas.cz, Tel.: 266 052 201.
Year of Publishing	2023
Electronic address	https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00477-021-02110-0

Number of the records: 1