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Synchronization and causality across time scales in El Niño Southern Oscillation

SYSNO ASEP	0499543
Document Type	J - Journal Article
R&D Document Type	Journal Article
Subsidiary J	Článek ve WOS
Title	Synchronization and causality across time scales in El Niño Southern Oscillation
Author(s)	Jajcay, Nikola (UIVT-O)_{RID, ORCID, SAI} Kravtsov, S. (US) Sugihara, G. (US) Tsonis, A.A. (US) Paluš, Milan (UIVT-O)_{RID, SAI, ORCID}
Article number	33
Source Title	n p j Climate and Atmospheric Science. - : Nature Publishing Group - ISSN 2397-3722 Roč. 1, 12 November (2018)
Number of pages	8 s.
Language	eng - English
Country	GB - United Kingdom
Keywords	casual discovery ; El Niño/Southern Oscillation ; climate ; climate models ; synchronization
Subject RIV	DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology
OECD category	Climatic research
R&D Projects	LH14001 GA MŠMT - Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports (MEYS)
Institutional support	UIVT-O - RVO:67985807
UT WOS	000468007700033
DOI	10.1038/s41612-018-0043-7
Annotation	Statistical inference of causal interactions and synchronization between dynamical phenomena evolving on different temporal scales is of vital importance for better understanding and prediction of natural complex systems such as the Earth’s climate. This article introduces and applies information theory diagnostics to phase and amplitude time series of different oscillatory components of observed data that characterizes El Niño/Southern Oscillation. A suite of significant interactions between processes operating on different time scales is detected and shown to be important for emergence of extreme events. The mechanisms of these nonlinear interactions are further studied in conceptual low-order and state-of-the-art dynamical, as well as statistical climate models. Observed and simulated interactions exhibit substantial discrepancies, whose understanding may be the key to an improved prediction of ENSO. Moreover, the statistical framework applied here is suitable for inference of cross-scale interactions in human brain dynamics and other complex systems.
Workplace	Institute of Computer Science
Contact	Tereza Šírová, sirova@cs.cas.cz, Tel.: 266 053 800
Year of Publishing	2019

Number of the records: 1