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Multi-GCM projections of future drought and climate variability indicators for the Mediterranean region
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SYSNO ASEP 0425806 Document Type J - Journal Article R&D Document Type Journal Article Subsidiary J Článek ve WOS Title Multi-GCM projections of future drought and climate variability indicators for the Mediterranean region Author(s) Dubrovský, Martin (UFA-U) RID, ORCID
Hayes, M. (US)
Duce, P. (IT)
Trnka, M. (CZ)
Svoboda, M. (US)
Zara, P. (IT)Number of authors 6 Source Title Regional Environmental Change. - : Springer - ISSN 1436-3798
Roč. 14, č. 5 (2014), s. 1907-1919Number of pages 13 s. Publication form Print - P Language eng - English Country DE - Germany Keywords mediterranean ; climate change ; global climate models ; temperature ; precipitation ; drought ; Palmer drought severity index ; weather generator Subject RIV DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology OECD category Climatic research R&D Projects IAA300420806 GA AV ČR - Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic (AV ČR) LD12029 GA MŠMT - Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports (MEYS) Institutional support UFA-U - RVO:68378289 UT WOS 000342455400018 EID SCOPUS 84907708767 DOI 10.1007/s10113-013-0562-z Annotation Future climate conditions for the Mediterranean region based on an ensemble of 16 Global Climate Models are expressed and mapped using three approaches, giving special attention to the intermodel uncertainty. (1) The scenarios of mean seasonal temperature and precipitation agree with the projections published previously by other authors. The results show an increase in temperature in all seasons and for all parts of the Mediterranean with good intermodel agreement. Precipitation is projected to decrease in all parts and all seasons (most significantly in summer) except for the northernmost parts in winter. The intermodel agreement for the precipitation changes is lower than for temperature. (2) Changes in drought conditions are represented using the Palmer Drought Severity Index and its intermediate Z-index product. The results indicate a significant decrease in soil moisture in all seasons, with the most significant decrease occurring in summer. The displayed changes exhibit high intermodel agreement. (3) The climate change scenarios are defined in terms of the changes in parameters of the stochastic daily weather generator calibrated with the modeled daily data; the emphasis is put on the parameters, which affect the diurnal and interdiurnal variability in weather series. These scenarios indicate a trend toward more extreme weather in the Mediterranean. Temperature maxima will increase not only because of an overall rise in temperature means, but partly (in some areas) because of increases in temperature variability and daily temperature range. Increased mean daily precipitation sums on wet days occurring in some seasons, and some parts of the Mediterranean may imply higher daily precipitation extremes, and decreased probability of wet day occurrence will imply longer drought spells all across the Mediterranean. Workplace Institute of Atmospheric Physics Contact Kateřina Adamovičová, adamovicova@ufa.cas.cz, Tel.: 272 016 012 ; Kateřina Potužníková, kaca@ufa.cas.cz, Tel.: 272 016 019 Year of Publishing 2015
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