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Modeling Neolithic dispersal in Central Europe: demographic implications
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SYSNO ASEP 0364157 Document Type J - Journal Article R&D Document Type Journal Article Subsidiary J Článek ve WOS Title Modeling Neolithic dispersal in Central Europe: demographic implications Author(s) Galeta, P. (CZ)
Sládek, Vladimír (UBO-W) RID
Sosna, D. (CZ)
Brůžek, J. (CZ)Number of authors 4 Source Title American Journal of Physical Anthropology. - : Wiley - ISSN 0002-9483
Roč. 146, č. 1 (2011), s. 104-115Number of pages 12 s. Language eng - English Country US - United States Keywords population projections ; stochastic modeling ; total fertility rate ; growth rate Subject RIV AC - Archeology, Anthropology, Ethnology R&D Projects GA206/09/0589 GA ČR - Czech Science Foundation (CSF) CEZ AV0Z60930519 - UBO-W (2005-2011) UT WOS 000294229100011 EID SCOPUS 80052044576 DOI 10.1002/ajpa.21572 Annotation On the basis of new examination of ancient DNA and craniometric analyses, Neolithic dispersal in Central Europe has been recently explained as reflecting colonization or at least a major influx of near eastern farmers. Given the fact that Neolithic dispersal in Central Europe was very rapid and extended into a large area, colonization would have to be associated with high population growth and fertility rates of an expanding Neolithic population. We built three demographic models to test whether the growth and fertility rates of Neolithic farmers were high enough to allow them to colonize Central Europe without admixture with foragers. The principle of the models is based on stochastic population projections. Our results demonstrate that colonization is an unlikely explanation for the Neolithic dispersal in Central Europe, as the majority of fertility and growth rate estimates obtained in all three models are higher than levels expected in the early Neolithic population. On the basis of our models, we derived that colonization would be possible only if (1) more than 37% of women survived to mean age at childbearing, (2) Neolithic expansion in Central Europe lasted more than 150 years, and (3) the population of farmers grew in the entire settled area. These settings, however, represent very favorable demographic conditions that seem unlikely given current archaeological and demographic evidence. Therefore, our results support the view that Neolithic dispersal in Central Europe involved admixture of expanding farmers with local foragers. We estimate that the admixture contribution from foragers may have been between 55% and 72%. Workplace Institute of Vertebrate Biology Contact Hana Slabáková, slabakova@ivb.cz, Tel.: 543 422 524 Year of Publishing 2012
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