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What would happen to barley production in Finland if global warming exceeded 4 °C? A model-based assessment
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SYSNO ASEP 0361675 Document Type J - Journal Article R&D Document Type Journal Article Subsidiary J Článek ve WOS Title What would happen to barley production in Finland if global warming exceeded 4 °C? A model-based assessment Author(s) Rötter, R.P. (FI)
Palosuo, T. (FI)
Pirttioja, N. K. (FI)
Dubrovský, Martin (UFA-U) RID, ORCID
Salo, T. (FI)
Fronzek, S. (FI)
Aikasalo, R. (FI)
Trnka, M. (CZ)
Ristolainen, A. (FI)
Carter, T. R. (FI)Source Title European Journal of Agronomy. - : Elsevier - ISSN 1161-0301
Roč. 35, č. 4 (2011), s. 205-214Number of pages 10 s. Language eng - English Country NL - Netherlands Keywords Barley ; Crop growth simulation ; Climatic variability ; Sensitivity analysis ; Plant breeding ; Weather generator Subject RIV DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology R&D Projects IAA300420806 GA AV ČR - Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic (AV ČR) CEZ AV0Z30420517 - UFA-U, BC-A (2005-2011) UT WOS 000294657500002 DOI 10.1016/j.eja.2011.06.003 Annotation With the rapid increases in temperature at high latitudes, conditions for crop production could change so dramatically that yields would be reduced, even accounting for the positive effects of CO2 fertilization. We use the WOFOST crop model to examine crop yield responses to a set of plausible climate change scenarios for Finland up to 2100 We use spring barley and calculate water-limited yields for two Finnish locations and two soil types. Scenarios include systematic increases in temperatures, changes in precipitation distribution and altered daily climatic variability using the M&Rfi weather generator. We also examine the effectiveness of a few adaptation options, such as shifts in sowing dates and hypothetical new crop cultivars. It is concluded that the positive effects of warming and elevated CO2 on cereal production at high latitudes are likely to be reversed at temperature increases exceeding 4 ºC. Only plant breeding efforts hold may reduce the risks of yield shortfall. Workplace Institute of Atmospheric Physics Contact Kateřina Adamovičová, adamovicova@ufa.cas.cz, Tel.: 272 016 012 ; Kateřina Potužníková, kaca@ufa.cas.cz, Tel.: 272 016 019 Year of Publishing 2012 Electronic address http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1161030111000694
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