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Prediction vs. reality: Can a PVA model predict population persistence 13 years later?

SYSNO ASEP	0356797
Document Type	J - Journal Article
R&D Document Type	Journal Article
Subsidiary J	Článek ve WOS
Title	Prediction vs. reality: Can a PVA model predict population persistence 13 years later?
Author(s)	Schödelbauerová, Iva (UEK-B) Tremblay, R. L. (US) Kindlmann, Pavel (UEK-B)_{RID, ORCID, SAI}
Number of authors	3
Source Title	Biodiversity and Conservation. - : Springer - ISSN 0960-3115 Roč. 19, č. 3 (2010), s. 637-650
Number of pages	14 s.
Language	eng - English
Country	NL - Netherlands
Keywords	Lepanthes rubripetala ; Matrix models ; Orchids ; Transition matrix
Subject RIV	EH - Ecology, Behaviour
R&D Projects	LC06073 GA MŠMT - Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports (MEYS)
CEZ	AV0Z60870520 - UEK-B (2005-2011)
UT WOS	000274330800003
DOI	10.1007/s10531-009-9724-1
Annotation	The challenge of conservation biology is to make models that predict population dynamics and have a high probability of accurately tracking population. Here we tested whether the transition model is accurate enough to predict population persistence and size 13 years down and whether after 13 years populations had achieved a stable stage distribution. We modeled 6 small populations of an epiphytic orchid. We re-censused the populations 13 years after the first study and compared the structure of the populations to predictions based on the earlier census data. Effective population growth rates were similar to those expected except for one where the population went extinct. The prediction slightly overestimated the actual population growth rates of some populations. Elasticity analysis revealed that the adult stage is critical in the life cycle. The observed stage distributions of the populations were not stable at the beginning of the survey and neither were they after 13 years.
Workplace	Global Change Research Institute
Contact	Nikola Šviková, svikova.n@czechglobe.cz, Tel.: 511 192 268
Year of Publishing	2011

Number of the records: 1