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Estimating the impact of climate change on the occurrence of selected pests in the Central European region
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SYSNO ASEP 0349905 Document Type J - Journal Article R&D Document Type Journal Article Subsidiary J Článek ve WOS Title Estimating the impact of climate change on the occurrence of selected pests in the Central European region Author(s) Kocmánková, E. (CZ)
Trnka, M. (CZ)
Eitzinger, J. (AT)
Formayer, H. (AT)
Dubrovský, Martin (UFA-U) RID, ORCID
Semerádová, Daniela (UEK-B) RID, ORCID, SAI
Žalud, Z. (CZ)
Juroch, J. (CZ)
Možný, M. (CZ)Source Title Climate Research - ISSN 0936-577X
Roč. 44, č. 1 (2010), s. 95-105Number of pages 11 s. Language eng - English Country DE - Germany Keywords Climate change ; Pests ; Geographical distribution ; Altitude Subject RIV DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology R&D Projects GA521/08/1682 GA ČR - Czech Science Foundation (CSF) IAA300420806 GA AV ČR - Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic (AV ČR) CEZ AV0Z30420517 - UFA-U, BC-A (2005-2011) UT WOS 000284005500009 DOI 10.3354/cr00905 Annotation This study demonstrates the methodology and benefits of climate-driven modelling tools using the European corn borer (ECB) and Colorado potato beetle (CPB). CLIMEX models of the potential geographical distributions of each species were used to study the effects of climate change on ECB and CPB by estimating changes in population dynamics and/or infestation pressure during the first half of the 21st century. Simulations were conducted using 3 global circulation models and scaled by low and high values of global temperature change. The results predict an increase in newly established areas and in the number of pest generations per year. The ratio of arable land affected by a particular number of generations is also expected to increase. Another significant result is shown for higher altitudes currently unoccupied by pests. We recorded rapid generation increase (from 0 to 2), which supports the hypothesis that these areas are more affected by increased temperatures. Workplace Institute of Atmospheric Physics Contact Kateřina Adamovičová, adamovicova@ufa.cas.cz, Tel.: 272 016 012 ; Kateřina Potužníková, kaca@ufa.cas.cz, Tel.: 272 016 019 Year of Publishing 2011
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