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Using the fractions skill score to assess the relationship between an ensemble QPF spread and skill

SYSNO ASEP	0335711
Document Type	J - Journal Article
R&D Document Type	Journal Article
Subsidiary J	Článek ve WOS
Title	Using the fractions skill score to assess the relationship between an ensemble QPF spread and skill
Title	Odhad rozptylu a kvality ensemblové kvantitativní předpovědi srážek pomocí Fractions skill score
Author(s)	Zacharov, Petr, jr. (UFA-U)_{RID, ORCID} Řezáčová, Daniela (UFA-U)_{RID, ORCID}
Source Title	Atmospheric Research. - : Elsevier - ISSN 0169-8095 Roč. 94, č. 4 (2009), s. 684-693
Number of pages	10 s.
Language	eng - English
Country	NL - Netherlands
Keywords	Quantitative precipitation forecast ; Ensemble forecasting ; Ensemble spread ; Ensemble skill ; Fractions Skill Score ; Forecast verification ; Radar-based rainfall
Subject RIV	DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology
R&D Projects	IAA300420804 GA AV ČR - Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic (AV ČR)
	OC 112 GA MŠMT - Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports (MEYS)
CEZ	AV0Z30420517 - UFA-U, BC-A (2005-2011)
UT WOS	000273099800016
DOI	10.1016/j.atmosres.2009.03.004
Annotation	Five convective events that produced heavy local rainfall in the Czech Republic were studied. The LM COSMO was run with a horizontal resolution of 2.8 km and an ensemble of 13 forecasts was created by modifying the initial and boundary conditions. Forecasts were verified by gauge-adjusted radar-based rainfalls. Ensemble skill and ensemble spread were determined using the Fractions Skill Score (FSS). The spread represents the differences between the control forecast and the forecasts provided by each ensemble member, while the skill evaluates the difference between the precipitation forecast and radar-based rainfalls. In this study, the ensemble skill is estimated on the basis of the ensemble spread. The numerical experiments used the FSS-based skill and spread values related to four events to estimate the skill–spread relationship. The relationship was applied to a fifth event to estimate the QPF ensemble skill given the ensemble FSS-based spread.
Workplace	Institute of Atmospheric Physics
Contact	Kateřina Adamovičová, adamovicova@ufa.cas.cz, Tel.: 272 016 012 ; Kateřina Potužníková, kaca@ufa.cas.cz, Tel.: 272 016 019
Year of Publishing	2010

Number of the records: 1