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Uncertainty in the area-related QPF for heavy convective precipitation

SYSNO ASEP	0327270
Document Type	J - Journal Article
R&D Document Type	Journal Article
Subsidiary J	Článek ve WOS
Title	Uncertainty in the area-related QPF for heavy convective precipitation
Title	Nejistota v kvantitativní předpovědi silných konvektivních srážek vztažené na plochu
Author(s)	Řezáčová, Daniela (UFA-U)_{RID, ORCID} Zacharov, Petr, jr. (UFA-U)_{RID, ORCID} Sokol, Zbyněk (UFA-U)_{RID, ORCID}
Source Title	Atmospheric Research. - : Elsevier - ISSN 0169-8095 Roč. 93, 1-3 (2009), s. 238-246
Number of pages	9 s.
Publication form	web - web
Action	European Conference on Severe Storms /4./
Event date	10.09.2007-14.09.2007
VEvent location	Miramare -Trieste
Country	IT - Italy
Event type	EUR
Language	eng - English
Country	NL - Netherlands
Keywords	Convective storm ; Quantitative precipitation forecast ; Uncertainty in precipitation forecasting ; Ensemble forecasting ; Numerical weather prediction model
Subject RIV	DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology
R&D Projects	GA205/07/0905 GA ČR - Czech Science Foundation (CSF)
	OC 112 GA MŠMT - Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports (MEYS)
CEZ	AV0Z30420517 - UFA-U, BC-A (2005-2011)
UT WOS	000267743900022
DOI	10.1016/j.atmosres.2008.12.005
Annotation	We studied five convective events producing heavy local rainfall with the help of the numerical weather prediction model LM COSMO. The model was run with a horizontal resolution of 2.8 km. We created an ensemble of 13 forecasts by modifying initial and boundary conditions. Uncertainties in the area-related quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) were evaluated with the help of a fraction skill score that can quantify the ensemble spread and skill. The spread represents the differences between the control forecast and the forecasts provided by each ensemble member, and the skill evaluates the difference between the precipitation forecast and radar-based rainfall. Analyses show how the forecast lead time and spatial scale influence the spread and skill values. Despite the different areal structures of precipitation fields, the relationships between spread and skill appear to be similar.
Workplace	Institute of Atmospheric Physics
Contact	Kateřina Adamovičová, adamovicova@ufa.cas.cz, Tel.: 272 016 012 ; Kateřina Potužníková, kaca@ufa.cas.cz, Tel.: 272 016 019
Year of Publishing	2010

Number of the records: 1