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Operational 0–3 h probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts: Recent performance and potential enhancements
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SYSNO ASEP 0326690 Document Type J - Journal Article R&D Document Type Journal Article Subsidiary J Článek ve WOS Title Operational 0–3 h probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts: Recent performance and potential enhancements Title Provozní pravděpodobnostní kvantitativní předpověď srážek na 0-3 h: Současný stav a potenciální zlepšení Author(s) Sokol, Zbyněk (UFA-U) RID, ORCID
Kitzmiller, D. (US)
Pešice, Petr (UFA-U) RID, ORCID
Guan, S. (US)Source Title Atmospheric Research. - : Elsevier - ISSN 0169-8095
Roč. 92, č. 3 (2009), s. 318-330Number of pages 13 s. Action International workshop on precipitation in urban areas /7./ Event date 07.12.2006-10.12.2006 VEvent location St. Moritz Country CH - Switzerland Event type WRD Language eng - English Country NL - Netherlands Keywords Precipitation ; Prediction ; Convection ; Radar ; Nowcasting Subject RIV DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology R&D Projects 1P05ME748 GA MŠMT - Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports (MEYS) CEZ AV0Z30420517 - UFA-U, BC-A (2005-2011) UT WOS 000265464600005 DOI 10.1016/j.atmosres.2009.01.011 Annotation The NOAA NationalWeather Service has maintained an automated, centralized 0–3 h prediction system for probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts since 2001. This advective-statistical system (ADSTAT) produces probabilities that rainfall will exceed multiple threshold values up to 50 mm at some location within a 40-km grid box. Operational characteristics and development methods for the system are described. Although development data were stratified by season and time of day, ADSTAT utilizes only a single set of nation-wide equations that relate predictor variables derived from radar reflectivity, lightning, satellite infrared temperatures, and numerical prediction model output to rainfall occurrence. A verification study documented herein showed that the operational ADSTAT reliably models regional variations in the relative frequency of heavy rain events. Workplace Institute of Atmospheric Physics Contact Kateřina Adamovičová, adamovicova@ufa.cas.cz, Tel.: 272 016 012 ; Kateřina Potužníková, kaca@ufa.cas.cz, Tel.: 272 016 019 Year of Publishing 2010
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