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Short-term effect of weather variables on West Nile virus infection in Equids in Spain: A space-time stratified case-crossover design
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SYSNO ASEP 0619006 Document Type J - Journal Article R&D Document Type Journal Article Subsidiary J Článek ve WOS Title Short-term effect of weather variables on West Nile virus infection in Equids in Spain: A space-time stratified case-crossover design Author(s) Fonseca-Rodríguez, O. (ES)
Pailler-García, L. (ES)
Urban, Aleš (UFA-U) RID, ORCID
Cáceres, G. (ES)
Napp, S. (ES)
Busquets, N. (ES)Number of authors 6 Article number 107602 Source Title Acta Tropica. - : Elsevier - ISSN 0001-706X
Roč. 264, April (2025)Number of pages 7 s. Language eng - English Country NL - Netherlands Keywords West Nile virus ; Equids ; Temperature ; Relative humidity ; Precipitation ; Distributed lag non-linear models ; Case-crossover design Method of publishing Open access Institutional support UFA-U - RVO:68378289 UT WOS 001460937000001 EID SCOPUS 105001351561 DOI https://doi.org/10.1016/j.actatropica.2025.107602 Annotation West Nile virus (WNV) is an arthropod-borne virus primarily transmitted by Culex mosquitoes, among birds, but occasionally infecting humans and equids. Understanding environmental factors on the disease occurrence is crucial for planning effective prevention and control strategies. Our study estimates the short-term effects of ambient temperature, relative humidity and precipitation on weekly cases of WNV in equids in Spain, using a space-time stratified case-crossover design. Because WNV transmission occurs sometime after the weather conditions become favorable for the vector, we aimed to estimate the lagged effect of the three weather variables on the incidence of WNV cases in equids. Therefore, we applied a conditional Poisson regression within the framework of lag-distributed models. These models are particularly effective for examining the delayed effects of exposures. The incidence of WNV confirmed cases was associated with temperatures registered within the prior two and eight weeks. The highest incidence was observed at lag four, where the incident rate ratio (IRR) increased to 11.96 (95 % CI: 9.84-50.40) with mean temperature at 33 degrees C, likewise relative humidity effect peaked also at lag four (IRR=3.99, 95 % CI: 1.43-11.16) at 93 % of relative humidity. On the other hand, the confidence intervals for precipitation were very wide, making it difficult to discern a clear change in the risk of WNV infection associated with total precipitation. This study sheds light on the complex relationships between meteorological variables and the incidence of WNV cases. Considering the zoonotic nature of the disease, these results could provide valuable information for surveillance and early warning of the disease. Workplace Institute of Atmospheric Physics Contact Kateřina Adamovičová, adamovicova@ufa.cas.cz, Tel.: 272 016 012 ; Kateřina Potužníková, kaca@ufa.cas.cz, Tel.: 272 016 019 Year of Publishing 2026 Electronic address https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0001706X25000798
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