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Prolongation of Compound Dry–Hot Seasons Over Europe Under Climate Change Scenarios
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SYSNO ASEP 0575529 Document Type J - Journal Article R&D Document Type Journal Article Subsidiary J Článek ve WOS Title Prolongation of Compound Dry–Hot Seasons Over Europe Under Climate Change Scenarios Author(s) Lhotka, Ondřej (UFA-U) RID, ORCID
Bešťáková, Zuzana (UFA-U) ORCID
Kyselý, Jan (UFA-U) RID, ORCIDNumber of authors 3 Article number e2023EF003557 Source Title Earth's Future - ISSN 2328-4277
Roč. 11, č. 9 (2023)Number of pages 16 s. Language eng - English Country US - United States Keywords heat waves ; drought ; compound ; climate change ; Europe ; RCM Subject RIV DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology OECD category Meteorology and atmospheric sciences R&D Projects GA20-28560S GA ČR - Czech Science Foundation (CSF) LTC19044 GA MŠMT - Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports (MEYS) Method of publishing Open access Institutional support UFA-U - RVO:68378289 UT WOS 001066329300001 EID SCOPUS 85170686700 DOI https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF003557 Annotation Compound effects of drought and heat are regarded as one of the greatest hazards in relation to climate change. We study characteristics of dry–hot seasons in Europe in an ensemble of CORDEX regional climate models (RCMs). Evaluation against the E-OBS gridded data set for 1976–2005 showed that the RCMs were able to reproduce the spatial pattern of the dry–hot season length but the simulated seasons tended to start later and interannual variability of their length was underestimated. Bias was larger (smaller) in the case of maximum (minimum) length over the 30-year period compared to the median length. Changes in the dry–hot seasons were then analyzed for three time slices (2006–2035, 2036–2065, and 2066–2095) and low and high greenhouse gas concentration pathways. Distinct prolongation (compared to the 1976–2005 simulated climate) was projected for 2036–2065 in the Mediterranean and Western Europe (10–30 days), regardless of the concentration pathway. The dry–hot seasons length was similar in the 2036–2065 and 2066–2095 time slices under the low concentration pathway but major extensions were found under the high concentration scenario over large parts of Europe (20–50 days). The projected spatial patterns of changes in the dry–hot seasons length depend primarily on the driving global climate model. Although the extensions are predominantly driven by increasing temperature, simulated precipitation changes modulate the resulting pattern by amplifying (reducing) the dry–hot seasons length in Southern (Northern) Europe. Workplace Institute of Atmospheric Physics Contact Kateřina Adamovičová, adamovicova@ufa.cas.cz, Tel.: 272 016 012 ; Kateřina Potužníková, kaca@ufa.cas.cz, Tel.: 272 016 019 Year of Publishing 2024 Electronic address https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2023EF003557
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