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Integrated national-scale assessment of climate change impacts on agriculture: the case of the Czech Republic
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SYSNO ASEP 0570117 Document Type K - Proceedings Paper (Czech conf.) R&D Document Type Conference Paper Title Integrated national-scale assessment of climate change impacts on agriculture: the case of the Czech Republic Author(s) Arbelaez Gaviria, Juliana (UEK-B) RID, SAI, ORCID
Boere, E. (AT)
Havlík, P. (AT)
Trnka, Miroslav (UEK-B) RID, ORCID, SAISource Title MendelNet 2021: Proceedings of 28th International PhD Students Conference. - Brno : Mendel University in Brno, 2021 / Cerkal R. ; Březinová Belcredi N. ; Prokešová L. - ISBN 978-80-7509-821-4
S. 236-241Number of pages 6 s. Publication form Online - E Action MendelNet 2021 Event date 10.11.2021 - 10.11.2021 VEvent location Brno Country CZ - Czech Republic Event type WRD Language eng - English Country CZ - Czech Republic Keywords climate change impacts ; Czech agriculture ; global assessment model Subject RIV EH - Ecology, Behaviour OECD category Agriculture R&D Projects EF16_019/0000797 GA MŠMT - Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports (MEYS) Institutional support UEK-B - RVO:86652079 Annotation In recent years, investigating climate change impacts in the agricultural sector at the national level has become a priority for adaptation decision-making. Most of these studies quantify the impacts
of biophysical effects and often ignore the cross-sectoral interactions and economic effects on relative competitiveness, international trade, global food supply, and food prices for the Czech Republic. Ignoring future productivity changes globally under climate change scenarios can underestimate or overestimate climate change impacts at the national level. Here, we use GLOBIOM-CZE, a global economic model, as part of a climate change impact assessment framework to evaluate the impacts on the Czech agricultural sector in terms of environmental and economic indicators. By comparing with the baseline, the ensemble of scenarios suggests a decrease in crop area and production while increasing grassland, positively affecting livestock production by mid-century. Corn and barley show the most adverse response in production and area, while rapeseed increases under scenario RCP 8.5 with CO2 fertilization effect. Livestock products production is projected to increase, especially bovine meat and milk, as within RCP 8.5, no constraints are placed on growing greenhouse gas emissions.Workplace Global Change Research Institute Contact Nikola Šviková, svikova.n@czechglobe.cz, Tel.: 511 192 268 Year of Publishing 2023 Electronic address https://mendelnet.cz/archive.php?secid=11&mag=mnt&vol=2021&no=1
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