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Characteristics of sub-daily precipitation extremes in observed data and regional climate model simulations
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SYSNO ASEP 0473912 Document Type J - Journal Article R&D Document Type Journal Article Subsidiary J Článek ve WOS Title Characteristics of sub-daily precipitation extremes in observed data and regional climate model simulations Author(s) Beranová, Romana (UFA-U) RID, ORCID
Kyselý, Jan (UFA-U) RID, ORCID
Hanel, M. (CZ)Number of authors 3 Source Title Theoretical and Applied Climatology - ISSN 0177-798X
Roč. 132, 1-2 (2018), s. 515-527Number of pages 13 s. Publication form Print - P Language eng - English Country AT - Austria Keywords sub-daily precipitation ; regional climate models ; extremes ; Czech Republic Subject RIV DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology OECD category Meteorology and atmospheric sciences R&D Projects GA14-18675S GA ČR - Czech Science Foundation (CSF) Institutional support UFA-U - RVO:68378289 UT WOS 000428241200036 EID SCOPUS 85016400170 DOI 10.1007/s00704-017-2102-0 Annotation The study compares characteristics of observed sub-daily precipitation extremes in the Czech Republic with those simulated by Hadley Centre Regional Model version 3 (HadRM3) and Rossby Centre Regional Atmospheric Model version 4 (RCA4) regional climate models (RCMs) driven by reanalyses and examines diurnal cycles of hourly precipitation and their dependence on intensity and surface temperature. The observed warm-season (May–September) maxima of short-duration (1, 2 and 3 h) amounts show one diurnal peak in the afternoon, which is simulated reasonably well by RCA4, although the peak occurs too early in the model. HadRM3 provides an unrealistic diurnal cycle with a nighttime peak and an afternoon minimum coinciding with the observed maximum for all three ensemble members, which suggests that convection is not captured realistically. Distorted relationships of the diurnal cycles of hourly precipitation to daily maximum temperature in HadRM3 further evidence that underlying physical mechanisms are misrepresented in this RCM. Goodness-of-fit tests indicate that generalised extreme value distribution is an applicable model for both observed and RCM-simulated precipitation maxima. However, the RCMs are not able to capture the range of the shape parameter estimates of distributions of short-duration precipitation maxima realistically, leading to either too many (nearly all for HadRM3) or too few (RCA4) grid boxes in which the shape parameter corresponds to a heavy tail. This means that the distributions of maxima of sub-daily amounts are distorted in the RCM-simulated data and do not match reality well. Therefore, projected changes of sub-daily precipitation extremes in climate change scenarios based on RCMs not resolving convection need to be interpreted with caution. Workplace Institute of Atmospheric Physics Contact Kateřina Adamovičová, adamovicova@ufa.cas.cz, Tel.: 272 016 012 ; Kateřina Potužníková, kaca@ufa.cas.cz, Tel.: 272 016 019 Year of Publishing 2018
Number of the records: 1