0434202 - ÚTIA 2016 RIV GB eng J - Journal Article
Baruník, Jozef - Kukačka, Jiří
Realizing stock market crashes: stochastic cusp catastrophe model of returns under time-varying volatility.
Quantitative Finance. Roč. 15, č. 6 (2015), s. 959-973. ISSN 1469-7688. E-ISSN 1469-7696
R&D Projects: GA ČR GA402/09/0965; GA ČR GA13-32263S
EU Projects: European Commission 612955 - FINMAP
Institutional support: RVO:67985556
Keywords : Stochastic cusp catastrophe model * Realized volatility * Bifurcations * Stock market crash
Subject RIV: AH - Economics
Impact factor: 0.794, year: 2015 ; AIS: 0.633, rok: 2015
Result website:
http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2014/E/barunik-0434202.pdf

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/14697688.2014.950319

This paper develops a two-step estimation methodology that allows us to apply catastrophe theory to stock market returns with time-varying volatility and to model stock market crashes. In the first step, we utilize high-frequency data to estimate daily realized volatility from returns. Then, we use stochastic cusp catastrophe theory on data normalized by the estimated volatility in the second step to study possible discontinuities in the markets. We support our methodology through simulations in which we discuss the importance of stochastic noise and volatility in a deterministic cusp catastrophe model. The methodology is empirically tested on nearly 27 years of US stock market returns covering several important recessions and crisis periods. While we find that the stock markets showed signs of bifurcation in the first half of the period, catastrophe theory was not able to confirm this behaviour in the second half.
Permanent Link: http://hdl.handle.net/11104/0238360