Development of Real-Time Bayesian Data Assimilation System for Off-Site Consequence Assessment

0381832 - ÚTIA 2013 JP eng C - Conference Paper (international conference)
Hofman, Radek - Šmídl, Václav - Pecha, Petr
Development of Real-Time Bayesian Data Assimilation System for Off-Site Consequence Assessment.
12th International Conference on Radiation Shielding & Topical Meeting of the Radiation Protection and Shielding Division of the American Nuclear Society. Nara: Atomic Energy Society of Japan, 2012, s. 37-37.
[12th International Conference on Radiation Shielding & 17th Topical Meeting of the Radiation Protection and Shielding Division of the American Nuclear Society. Nara (JP), 2.-7. 9. 2012]
R&D Projects: GA MV(CZ) VG20102013018
Institutional support: RVO:67985556
Keywords : data assimilation * sequential Monte Carlo * decision support system
Subject RIV: DL - Nuclear Waste, Radioactive Pollution ; Quality
http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2012/AS/hofman-development of real-time bayesian data assimilation system for off-site consequence assessment.pdf

The task of decision support in the case of a radiation accident is to provide up-to-date information on the radiation situation, prognosis of its future evolution and possible consequences. The reliability of predictions can be significantly improved using data assimilation, which refers to a group of mathematical methods for an efficient combination of observed data with a numerical model. This paper concerns application of advanced data assimilation methods in the off-site consequence assessment when radionuclides are released into the atmosphere. Our goal is to develop a decision support system with automated real-time assessment of radiation situation that does not underestimate its uncertainty. To achieve this goal we employ particle filtering − a Bayesian approach suitable for sequential processing of a stream of measurements incoming from a monitoring network.
Permanent Link: http://hdl.handle.net/11104/0212211