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Recent severe heat waves in central Europe: how to view them in a long-term prospect?
- 1.0350685 - ÚFA 2011 RIV GB eng J - Journal Article
Kyselý, Jan
Recent severe heat waves in central Europe: how to view them in a long-term prospect?
International Journal of Climatology. Roč. 30, č. 1 (2010), s. 89-109. ISSN 0899-8418. E-ISSN 1097-0088
R&D Projects: GA ČR GC205/07/J044
Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30420517
Keywords : heat wave * climate variability * regional warming * stochastic modelling * probability estimates * central Europe
Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology
Impact factor: 2.479, year: 2010
The study examines whether recent occurrences of severe heat waves in central Europe were exceptional in the context of past fluctuations, and estimates their recurrence probabilities under several climate change scenarios. Probabilities of long and severe heat waves are estimated from daily temperature series generated by a first-order autoregressive model with a deterministic component (incorporating a seasonal cycle and a long-term trend). The return period of a heat wave reaching or exceeding the length of the 2006 heat wave in Prague is estimated to be around 120 years in 2006.
Permanent Link: http://hdl.handle.net/11104/0190622
Number of the records: 1