A comparison of predictability of historical heavy precipitation events

0505554 - ÚFA 2020 DE eng A - Abstract
Zacharov, Petr, jr. - Bližňák, Vojtěch - Müller, Miloslav - Kašpar, Marek
A comparison of predictability of historical heavy precipitation events.
ICCARUS Seminar 2019 book of abstracts. Offenbach: Deustcher Wetterdienst, 2019. s. 70.
[ICCARUS 2019. 07.03.2019-07.03.2019, Offenbach]
Institutional support: RVO:68378289
Keywords : heavy precipitation * weather extreme * numerical weather prediction * verification
OECD category: Meteorology and atmospheric sciences

Heavy precipitation is still one of the primary goals of numerical weather prediction. The most intensive events occur very rare so it is hard to compare its predictability because of continuous changes in NWP models and initial conditions. This paper aims to evaluate a detail forecasts of historical precipitation events characterized by large value of weather extremity index (WEI). The forecasts are based on European reanalysis which provide a spatially complete and coherent record of global atmospheric circulation. Unlike archived weather analyses from operational forecasting systems, a reanalysis is produced with a single version of a data assimilation system, including the forecast model used, and it is therefore not affected by changes in method. Furthermore, the reanalysis often describes the atmospheric circulations better than contemporary NWP models.We selected 22 events from years 1979 to 2002 which is a range covered by all three chosen reanalysis. The model starts at 00UTC and produce 24h precipitation total from 06-06UTC. The forecasts are verified against precipitation totals from Czech precipitation network using grid to grid as well as spatial verification. The events and the verification results are compared also with WEI values.
Permanent Link: http://hdl.handle.net/11104/0297033