Number of the records: 1
Application of Sequential Monte Carlo Estimation for Early Phase of Radiation Accident
- 1.
SYSNO ASEP 0377542 Document Type V - Research Report R&D Document Type The record was not marked in the RIV Title Application of Sequential Monte Carlo Estimation for Early Phase of Radiation Accident Author(s) Šmídl, Václav (UTIA-B) RID, ORCID
Hofman, Radek (UTIA-B) RIDNumber of authors 2 Issue data Praha: UTIA AV CR, v.v.i, 2012 Series Research Report Series number 2322 Number of pages 25 s. Publication form pdf - pdf Language eng - English Country CZ - Czech Republic Keywords radiation protection ; dispersion modeling ; particle filter Subject RIV BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research R&D Projects VG20102013018 GA MV - Ministry of Interior (MV) Institutional support UTIA-B - RVO:67985556 Annotation The early phase of radiation accident is characterized by minimum number of measured data and high uncertainty in both atmospheric conditions and radiation situation. Our goal is to provide an accurate method of radiation situation assessment that is capable to respect the uncertainty and provide informative predictions of its evolution for the involved decision makers. We propose a state space model based on atmospheric dispersion model, numerical weather model with local corrections and random walk on the model corrections and release evolution. This model is highly nonlinear and is estimated using sequential Monte Carlo. Since the model is significantly more complex that previously considered models and its estimation with naive proposal densities become too computationally demanding. We propose to construct a proposal density using problem specific simplification followed by application of the Laplace approximation. Properties of the resulting estimation procedure are illustrated on a twin experiment. Workplace Institute of Information Theory and Automation Contact Markéta Votavová, votavova@utia.cas.cz, Tel.: 266 052 201. Year of Publishing 2013
Number of the records: 1